Promotion to the Premier League has never been worth more. Relegation has never come at a greater cost.
So, in one respect, the biggest game last weekend was West Bromwich Albion against Cardiff City.
The most seismic today pits Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s Cardiff against Crystal Palace.
The Norwegian admitted during the week that after 94 minutes last Saturday his team were all but relegated.
Then Mats Daehli scored the sixth goal of a dramatic game and the points were shared.
That left Cardiff three behind West Brom but they still had hope. Yet it is diminished by the week for the teams in most danger – as every opportunity slips away, fewer are to come.
The most congested battle at the bottom in years once featured 11 teams.
Stoke City have reached the 40-point barrier and can be discounted.
West Ham United, on 37, are effectively safe, too, and, barring a dramatic collapse, Aston Villa, Swansea City and Hull City are likely to remain in the division even if today’s game between the latter pair assumes huge importance for Steve Bruce’s Hull, whose other home matches are difficult on paper.
Assuming Hull, who have not fallen below 14th since September, do not slip up, the equation is now simpler.
It is three from six to make the precipitous drop – in finances, footballing standards and worldwide profile – into the Championship.
Indeed, some would suggest it is three from four.
Yet Norwich have spent the season with the spectre of a horrendously hard finish to the campaign hanging over them.
Their final four opponents are Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal.
Winning points against West Brom and Fulham in the next eight days is vital to ensure they retain their status.
So, too, the game in Wales. Cardiff entered December’s meeting with Palace four points ahead of the Londoners.
There has been a nine-point swing in the space of five months. Now Tony Pulis’s side boast a five-point advantage.
If they extend that to eight today, it is difficult to see how Cardiff could overhaul Palace, especially as their only league wins in 2014 have come against Norwich and Fulham.
How, then, would they beat the three top-half teams they still have to face?
There have been some magnificently illogical runs to safety in previous years – think of Fulham in 2008 or Wigan in 2012 – but there are certain trends at the bottom.
Cardiff have two wins in 16 league games, West Brom two in 20 and Fulham one in 13. Sunderland’s record is a little better but they have not won in five.
The common denominator in the bottom four is that they all have changed managers since the season began back in August.
Only Gus Poyet has proved a clear improvement to what had come before and Sunderland have been playing catch-up since their first eight games of the season yielded a solitary point.
Solskjaer has two league wins to his name, Albion’s Pepe Mel and Fulham’s Felix Magath one apiece.
They are records that ought to encourage Palace, Norwich and everyone above them.
Reaching the 38-point barrier tends to assume mythical importance but, given the failings of the bottom four, 35 or 36 might suffice this season.
The wild card in proceedings is Sunderland. Poyet’s men have the potential to change the picture dramatically.
They have two games in hand and home matches against Cardiff and West Brom.
Yet they also have to face five of the top seven and have scored a solitary league goal at the Stadium of Light against sides in the bottom half.
It is an extraordinary statistic that sheds light on their problems. This has been a year when they have often performed better against the stronger sides.
They are the enigmas, so no prediction about them can be made with confidence.
That said, the prediction on relegation is that, while West Brom’s plight may grow more desperate over the next three weeks and their May trip to Sunderland will become crucial, the current bottom three will be the trio to depart the division.
sports@thenational.ae
