Volkswagen’s bill for cheating on diesel emissions could potentially top €30 billion (Dh127.34bn) as a legal battle with thousands of investors heats up in the German car maker’s own backyard.
A court in the town of Braunschweig, just over 30km from VW’s Wolfsburg headquarters, has scheduled a series of hearings starting on Monday in a case combining claims by some 4,000 shareholders demanding €9bn in compensation.
They argue VW failed to warn them soon enough about an investigation by US regulators, who triggered a collapse in the stock after they announced their diesel probe three years ago.
Enraged shareholders filed the first cases in October 2015. A year later, a wave of institutional investors followed, among them BlackRock, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System and Allianz Global Investors. The proceedings were moved to the Braunschweig civic centre to make space for the hordes of lawyers as well as investors who want to attend.
Volkswagen admitted in late 2015 that it rigged diesel vehicles to cheat emissions tests in the US and that about 11 million worldwide could be affected. VW has calculated the scandal’s overall financial impact at €27.4bn. That includes payouts to US customers, states and regulators and a €1bn settlement with German prosecutors.
Should the investors score a complete victory, that toll would grow by a third. While a full award is unlikely and the company hasn’t made any provisions for the risks, VW has added €3.4bn to contingent liabilities in its financial statements for that litigation - potentially bringing the overall cost above €30bn.
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“There’s clearly a risk that VW may have to pay something in the end, and I would scale it at about 50 per cent," said Juergen Pieper, a Frankfurt-based analyst at Bankhaus Metzler who recommends buying the stock. “Claiming €9bn is certainly overblown. I would see the risk rather at €3bn or €4bn.”
To avoid a costly scenario, VW has been toiling for almost three years to deflect the actions. The company said it denies the allegation and says the suit is unfounded.
The hearings will kick off a new season of legal skirmishes showing how deeply VW is still mired in the diesel scandal - above all in Germany.
In Monday’s case, the Braunschweig court is hearing the dispute under a special procedure akin to a US class action, that centralises the evidence phase for all suits pending. The plaintiffs must convince the court that top managers knew early on about the manipulation, that they should have disclosed their knowledge to the markets and that the failure to do so makes them liable under capital markets rules.
These issues aren’t no-brainers, said Andreas Tilp, the lawyer for the lead plaintiff in the case, admitting that it is hard to tell which side the court will take.
“You first have to kill the bear before you can divide the fur," he told a group of reporters on September 4.
The most hotly contested question revolves around when VW had to disclose the issue to the markets. The earlier that was, the more money shareholders could get, since payouts would hinge on when investors bought or sold shares.
Mr Tilp argues that VW knew as early as 2008 that it wouldn’t be able to meet the strict environmental standards in the US for diesel cars and should have publicly said so back then.
But even if the court sees the crucial point only in May 2014 - when information about the US probe started being fed toward top management - about 40 per cent of his clients would still have a case, according to Mr Tilp.
VW argues that the relevant top managers only learned in 2015 about the problems with US regulators.
Porsche, which holds the majority of VW shares, is also a defendant in the case. Some of its own shareholders sued because they say Porsche was also late in disclosing what was going on. Like VW, its majority holder denies the allegations.
