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Abu Dhabi, UAESaturday 16 February 2019

Shale to top 14 million bpd by 2031, says US Energy Information Administration

The US will be a net exporter of petroleum next year

The sun sets behind an oil rig seen in Monahans, Texas. US crude is set to exceed 12 million bpd this year, according to the EIA. Bloomberg
The sun sets behind an oil rig seen in Monahans, Texas. US crude is set to exceed 12 million bpd this year, according to the EIA. Bloomberg

A year ago, the US government saw American crude production averaging 11.95 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2042. Shale drillers are set to exceed that this year.

The Energy Information Administration now estimates output will top out at 14.53 million bpd in 2031, according to its Annual Energy Outlook released Thursday.

Why such a big difference? Near-term prices are higher than what the agency assumed last year, boosting the baseline production, according to the EIA.

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The US will be a net exporter of petroleum -- and energy in general -- next year, years sooner than previous annual estimates, something the EIA flagged in its short-term outlook earlier this month. That’s due to the faster increases in crude and natural gas liquids production, combined with slower demand growth, according to EIA Administrator Linda Capuano.

“America’s move to net exports was supposed to be five or six years off,” said Kevin Book, managing director of the Washington-based consultancy ClearView Energy Partners. “Now it’s next year. That’s big news.”

Updated: January 25, 2019 09:52 AM

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