After successfully navigating her way through a tough draw to reach the semi-finals, the path looked to have cleared for Iga Swiatek to clinch a historic Middle East Masters double.
Defeated at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships were a former US Open champion, a two-time Dubai champion, and the most recent Australian Open finalist, but where Sloane Stephens, Elina Svitolina, and Qinwen Zheng failed, world No 40 Anna Kalinskaya succeeded.
Of all the world No 1's opponents this week, Kalinskaya would have appeared the least challenging. The Russian had to come through qualifying and had only ever visited one WTA Tour final in her career.
Yet, her superb quarter-final victory over third seed Coco Gauff on Thursday showed that she would be no pushover, and so it proved as Kalinskaya sealed the biggest win of her career – 24 hours after her previous biggest – 6-4, 6-4.
"It's a bit surprising, for sure," Kalinskaya , 25, said. "I wasn't feeling very well before the tournament. I had to play [qualifiers]. I stayed in the moment just match by match. I'm super happy to be in the final. I can't believe it yet. But tomorrow is just another day. I'm looking forward to play my first big final."
The defeat ended Swiatek's eight-match winning run that included a third straight Qatar Open title and denied her a second successive opportunity to complete the Doha-Dubai double. The top seed fell just short last year when she lost to Barbora Krejcikova in the final.
Swiatek was seeking to become just the third woman to win the Qatar and Dubai tournaments in the same season after Martina Hingis in 2001 and Justine Henin in 2007. However, she would have been the first to achieve it since both tournaments received elevated Masters 1000 status.
A disappointment for Swiatek but the moment belongs to Kalinskaya and she will fancy her chances against Jasmine Paolini in Saturday's final. The pair met recently, at January's Australian Open, where Kalinskaya eased to a 6-4, 6-2 victory in the fourth round to make her first Grand Slam quarter-final.
Italian world No 26 Paolini, who defeated Romania's Sorana Cirstea in the earlier semi-final, won their only other encounter back in 2021.
"It gives me confidence because I already know how she plays, so I have an idea what I need to do, what to be ready for," Kalinskaya said. "It's something I can think about and be more prepared. But tomorrow is a different match. I just need to wake up and do my best."
The eventual outcome of the match would not have been anticipated by most outside of Team Kalinskaya when Swiatek struck first to claim a 4-2 lead in the first set. The Pole is typically one of the best frontrunners in tennis, so usually when she takes this sort of lead, she hammers home her advantage. Instead, Swiatek experienced a curious and immediate dip, getting broken to love in the very next game.
Perhaps sensing Swiatek's drop in intensity, Kalinskaya seized her chance, winning four straight games and totally outplaying the top seed to take the opening set.
As the best player in the world, a reaction was expected from Swiatek at the start of the second set, but it never came – at least not initially. She was broken in the first game to fall 2-0 behind and couldn't find any inroads on Kalinskaya's serve.
The Russian struck again in the seventh game to take a 5-2 lead and put herself on the brink of a famous win. It was at this do-or-die moment that Swiatek went on the attack. She saw away two match points and claimed back one break to close the gap to 5-3, then held comfortably for 5-4.
The tension was back on Kalinskaya's serve and the qualifier held firm under mounting pressure from Swiatek, saving two break points before finally sealing the win at the third attempt.
"She's a great player, so I had to stay calm and just follow the plan that I had in my mind. I had to stay aggressive and keep moving her," Kalinskaya said. "I was lucky - not lucky, I deserved it. But I was up 5-2, I had two match points. Unfortunately didn't go as I wish it could. I had to reset and start playing point by point.
"When I finished the match, I didn't feel like it was over because I was still mentally ready to play even if the score would be five-all. I was just very focused."
