Sometimes experiments produce predictable conclusions. Can a Championship team spend a mere £750,000 (Dh3.5m) in transfer fees in the summer and then survive in the Premier League? The definitive answer may be supplied soon but Norwich City are six points from safety, without a goal in open play since the fourth minute of their New Year’s Day fixture and face three of the top seven next. The Championship beckons.
In Premier League history, only 15 teams have had as few points at this stage and survived. The last were Leicester in 2015. Thursday's opponents went on to win seven of their last nine games and the following season’s title. They are extraordinary outliers, not realistic role models.
But there are different ways of going down. Norwich’s will belong among the respectable relegations, not the excruciating, expensive failures. Fulham were promoted a year earlier, spent over £120 million and suffered a demoralising demotion.
Norwich have ploughed a different path. They overspent during their last stint in the Premier League, particularly on Steven Naismith. Salvation came in the form of sellable young players like the Murphy twins but the proceeds from James Maddison’s move to Leicester went to fill the black hole in the accounts created by their gambles in the January 2016 window.
“We have to learn from what happened last time, otherwise what was the point of going through that pain?” director of football Stuart Webber said last month.
Perhaps a little more aspiration and a couple more signings could have made a difference but a refusal to risk the club’s future is admirable. It is also being rewarded: over 20,000 season tickets have already been sold for next year.
Norwich have a new financial model. Webber has talked of establishing the team in the country’s top 26 clubs and if that sounds unambitious, it feels rooted in realism. They should at least be a play-off team next year. They will be in a healthier shape than most Championship clubs.
In centre-back Ben Godfrey, right-back Max Aarons and their season’s breakout player, winger Todd Cantwell, they have rising talents who might conservatively be valued at a combined £70 million. Norwich know they cannot buy stars but can make them and could fund a promotion push by selling some of their own.
That each has enhanced his reputation this season shows Norwich have acquitted themselves well in various ways. Beating Manchester City is the highlight but they have had the attacking enterprise and mettle to draw with Leicester, Arsenal and Tottenham and score against all the elite: indeed, Teemu Pukki has struck against both last season’s Champions League finalists, both the Europa League finalists and the winners of the three English domestic trophies.
But they conceded more home goals than bottom club Ipswich in last season’s Championship. Defensive naivety remains an issue and Norwich have been too open; goalkeeper Tim Krul has been excellent but in an extended damage-limitation exercise. Webber’s recruitment strategy worked wonderfully in the Championship but some of the cut-price players sourced from Bundesliga B have struggled with the step up.
One of last season’s revelations was Marco Stiepermann, used as a left-back until he replaced Maddison as the No. 10 and who knitted the team together with wonderful intelligence. The German has had a negligible impact this season.
The search for solutions has led manager Daniel Farke to drop Emi Buendia, even though only Kevin de Bruyne and Trent Alexander-Arnold have created more chances in the division. Meanwhile Webber returned to Germany to buy Lukas Rupp in January and bought Sam McCallum from Maddison’s old club, Coventry. It is the Norwich way, the quest for long-term gain amid the short-term pain.
