Without a doubt no one expected this. Five years ago this week, when Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in a small Tunisian town, no one, absolutely no one, could have imagined the Middle East would look like it does today.
The Middle East has been living with the reality of the Arab Spring and, in some countries, the post-Arab Spring for nearly half a decade, to the point where it has become the new normal. It can be hard to remember what it was like before.
Hardly surprising, then, that the Arab Spring divides opinion. The progression of the revolutions in each of the five countries have gone in very different directions. Some, like Egypt, have found themselves back on track. Tunisia, where it started, is doing well. Libya, Yemen and Syria, much less so.
In situations of such cruelty and complexity, it is easy to imagine that what existed before was better. That the revolutions, as some would have it, “failed”.
And, certainly, looking at the dire situation for ordinary Syrians, watching as ISIL attacks Kurds and Yazidis, or as ordinary Libyans and Yemenis suffer in countries without the rule of law, looking back to a period of stability is seductive.
But it is worth recalling that the Arab Spring wasn’t an event. It wasn’t a single, static moment. It was months and years of decisions, of responses, of actions and reactions.
If the Arab Spring revolutions didn’t always turn out better for the people, that isn’t the fault of those who revolted for a better world. It’s often the fault of those who spent money, manpower and bullets to prevent that world coming about.
Look, for example, at Yemen. The Houthi rebellion would never have reached the state it has were it not for the support of the deposed president Ali Abdullah Saleh and those loyal to him.
The fact that Mr Saleh has allied himself so closely with this small rebel group from Yemen’s north, over the wishes of the majority of the people, the protestations of his allies and neighbours, and the international community, speaks volumes about his mindset. To Mr Saleh and his allies, what they want is far more important than what the people want. That mindset guided his decades in power and his response to the 2011 uprising.
The same applies to Syria. The contempt that the regime has demonstrated for the lives of Syrians did not begin in 2011. It was not a reaction to the uprising. Rather, the uprising was a reaction to the contempt. The three decades of Assad rule, father and son, were marked by decisions that were best for only one group of people, the Assads and their supporters, not what was best for Syria.
Arguing that the Arab Spring “failed”, therefore, is to misunderstand what revolutions are and how they play out. There were many opportunities for Bashar Al Assad to go down the route of Zine El Abedine Ben Ali in Tunisia and simply leave. That he did not is not the fault of the Syrian people.
Nor, it should be noted, was the Arab Spring something that only happened to the Arabs. The chaos in Syria or Libya did not spring full-formed into being. It took months and years, all while the international community watched and debated. Any discussion about how the Arab Spring played out, therefore, has to involve the action and inaction of outside powers.
The revolutions of the republics were complex and deeply consequential. They have torn apart the old order, and not always for the better. But the Arab Spring was not an option. It was not a choice. It was a spontaneous uprising by millions of people across the Arab world.
Millions of people, let’s not forget, who knew exactly what protesting against their regimes meant: it meant defiance and imprisonment, or torture and death. That level of courage, multiplied across tens of millions of people and two continents, must at least be recognised and understood. A courageous decision can sometimes go wrong as well.
The Arab Spring was a pivotal moment in history. The region now has to deal with the realities and the consequences – many of which, as the two writers on this page discuss, are unpalatable. But seeking to avoid a harsh reality by seeking comfort in a mythical past is not an option. Bouazizi may have lit the spark, but it is the region that must deal with charting a new direction for itself.
falyafai@thenational.ae
On Twitter: @FaisalAlYafai
