Shift in tactics shows growing confidence of Afghan Taliban

Militant offensives have some people asking whether foreign troops should leave.

Afghan security forces at the site of a suicide attack in Ghazni on  September 4. Rahmatullah Nikzad / AP Photo
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KABUL // A large-scale assault by hundreds of Taliban fighters in Ghazni province has provided a glimpse of the severe security challenges facing Afghanistan as foreign troops prepare to withdraw.

The ongoing attack, which has killed as many as 100 people, is just the latest example of nationwide offensives in recent months that have left several districts on the brink of collapse.

The shift from hit-and-run tactics to more conventional combat is seen as a sign of the militants’ growing confidence almost 13 years after the war began.

Security forces – including soldiers, police and commandos – battled the militants in Ghazni on Saturday. The government claims the death toll since the militants attacked last week includes a number of people who were beheaded.

The Taliban denied they carried out any beheadings and refuted claims that the district was close to falling back under government control.

The assault will likely add to the doubts of Afghans across the country that the army and police will be able to hold off the Taliban in the medium and long term.

Many have told The National it is a matter of when, not if, significant areas of territory will start to fall to them.

One of the places worst hit has been the southern province of Helmand, where coordinated assaults were launched in June. The clashes continue, with the districts of Musa Qala and Sangin experiencing heavy fighting.

Sardar Mohammed Hamdard, a civil society activist in Helmand, said there have been heavy casualties on all sides but he could see no end to the insurgents’ momentum.

“All the areas and land they capture are being planted very heavily with mines and government forces cannot retake them easily from the Taliban,” he said. “These are all new techniques that are being used.”

The attacks have taken place amid deep uncertainty about Afghanistan’s political future.

A bitter dispute over the outcome of this year’s election was resolved this week when both sides agreed to form a unity government after months of wrangling.

A former World Bank technocrat, Ashraf Ghani, will be sworn in as president on Monday. His rival, Abdullah Abdullah, will also have significant power in the new administration.

The drawn-out affair only added to the disillusionment many Afghans feel towards the political class, an anger that is one of several factors contributing to the Taliban’s rise.

Violence has flared in the north of Helmand province in part because widespread administrative corruption had alienated people in the area, Mr Hamdard said.

He claimed the security forces were also divided, with some much more reluctant to fight than others.

Other large-scale assaults have taken place elsewhere in the country. In August hundreds of insurgents attacked the district of Hesarak in the eastern province of Nangarhar, near Kabul.

A resident of the provincial capital, Jalalabad, likened the assault to the tactics used by ISIL in Iraq and Syria, saying the events there had inspired militants in Afghanistan.

Seddiq, 25, said the Taliban were at one stage so confident of success they made careful preparations to govern the district and to announce their victory to the media.

In the end, Nato airstrikes, which have become increasingly rare, were needed to push them back.

“It showed we can’t do anything without Nato help and support,” he said. “If they are not with us, we could be defeated in one day.”

Most foreign combat soldiers are due to withdraw at the end of this year, with only a residual force including 9,800 American troops remaining for training and what are described as counterterrorism missions.

The assaults this summer suggest the Taliban may be testing the ground to assess what the they will be up against in future.

The situation was not unexpected. A 2012 report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace predicted an economic, institutional and security crisis would develop as the withdrawal gathered pace, with large numbers of districts falling to the Taliban this year.

The report even warned that a few provincial capitals could collapse.

That scenario still seems some way off but security is undoubtedly deteriorating. The Afghan interior minister, Omar Daudzai, said this month that more than 1,500 Afghan police have been killed since late March. Insurgents have also attacked districts in the north, with provinces including Kunduz, Faryab and Badakhshan targeted. Violence is likely to decrease during the winter, when Afghanistan traditionally experiences a lull in fighting. The real test may come next spring and summer.

Haji Asadullah Omarkhil is head of the High Peace Council in Kunduz province, which shares a border with Tajikistan. He told The National the election dispute had been exploited by insurgents, who were planting mines over wider areas of land than before.

He also said they have been able to get hold of heavy weapons that are “not even in the hands of our government” but expressed his support for Afghan forces and was confident no districts would collapse soon.

However, he added another note of caution when he said the Taliban are not the only threat. The real fear many Afghans have is that the rebels are just one element of a combustible mix that could plunge the country deeper into chaos after the withdrawal.

Mr Omarkhil estimated there are now thousands of armed men “with no title and no name” in Kunduz alone, many of whom once belonged to pro-government militias. “Anyone who has a gun has taken it out now.”

foreign.desk@thenational.ae