Extremist Islamist rebels will gain sway over the many disparate factions opposing the Syrian president, Bashar Al Assad, unless they are checked, and the country's civil war could last years, a top Pentagon intelligence official says.
Extremists could 'take over rebel groups opposing Assad', Pentagon official warns
ASPEN, Colorado // Extremist Islamist rebels will gain sway over the many disparate factions opposing the Syrian president, Bashar Al Assad, unless they are checked, and the country's civil war could last years, a top Pentagon intelligence official has said.
David Shedd, the deputy director of the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA), did not advocate any form of intervention by the United States or its allies, saying that was up to policymakers.
But his bleak assessment of the dangers posed by the Islamist Al Nusra Front and Al Qaeda's Iraq-based wing, as well as the prospects for a prolonged conflict, could bolster advocates of greater involvement by the US and its allies.
Addressing the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado, Mr Shedd said he counted at least 1,200 groups in the opposition. He said many of the groups were preoccupied with local grievances, such as a lack of potable water in their villages.
"Left unchecked, I'm very concerned that the most radical elements will take over larger segments" of the opposition groups, Mr Shedd said, strongly hinting at the need for some kind of outside intervention.
He said the conflict could drag on anywhere "from many, many months to multiple years", and that a prolonged stalemate could leave open parts of Syria to potential control by radical fighters.
"They will not go home when it's over," Mr Shedd said, envisioning one scenario where Mr Al Assad retreats to an enclave and other parts of the country are up for grabs. "They will fight for that space, and they're there for the long haul."
Mr Shedd added that he and the DIA never thought Mr Al Assad's regime would fall quickly - comments that appeared to stand in contrast to predictions by US officials a year ago that his days were numbered.
"DIA's position was that [Assad's fall] was no earlier than the start of this year. And it's obviously not happened," he said.
US plans to ship weapons to some rebels have been caught in a Washington impasse, after some members of Congress feared they would end up in the hands of Islamist militants.
Asked whether he thought more secular opposition fighters should be strengthened, or whether more radical rebel groups need somehow to be confronted, Mr Shedd said: "I think it's too simple to say it's one or the other.
"Because it's the reality that left unchecked they will become bigger," he said, cautioning that the Al Nusra Front was gaining in strength and was "a case of serious concern".
Rivalries have been growing between the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Islamists, whose smaller but more effective forces control most of the rebel-held parts of northern Syria more than two years after pro-democracy protests became an uprising.
The two sides previously fought together from time to time, but the western and Arab-backed FSA, desperate for greater firepower, has tried to distance itself from the Islamists to allay US fears that any arms it might supply could reach Al Qaeda.
Mr Shedd's comments came as FSA rebels vent frustration at what they see as the slow pace of western support. Britain, for example, has abandoned plans to arm rebels.
Mr Shedd acknowledged identifying "good" versus "bad" rebels was very difficult.
"But I think it is a challenge that is well worth pursuing," he said.
Asked how the US could avoid getting sucked into the conflict, Mr Shedd said: "I believe relying on allies in the region is our best solution."
"We know that a number of the Gulf states have great concerns with the Bashar Al Assad regime. And I think that there are a number, and a sizeable number, of allies that would be prepared to work even more closely with us," he said.