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Britain's Conservative Party set for biggest majority election victory in over 30 years, poll reveals

YouGov poll predicts the Conservatives will win 359 seats out of 650 - their best result since Margaret Thatcher's victory in 1987

UK Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Boris Johnson is leading the polls ahead of the December 12 election. Getty
UK Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Boris Johnson is leading the polls ahead of the December 12 election. Getty

Britain's Conservative Party is on course to win its biggest majority in parliament in the upcoming election in over 30 years.

The poll by YouGov, the group which accurately predicted the 2017 election result, showed the Conservatives are set to win 359 seats out of 650, which would be their best result since Margaret Thatcher's victory in 1987.

A large victory would give Prime Minister Boris Johnson a mandate to take the country out of the European Union and deliver Brexit by January 31.

It would finally end the political deadlock over Brexit which has seen Mr Johnson and his predecessor Theresa May both failing to get deals to leave the 28-member bloc through parliament because they lacked a majority.

YouGov used its Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model to develop the latest poll.

Anthony Wells, director of political and social research at YouGov, said: "Our first MRP model projection for the 2019 election suggests that this time round the Conservatives are set for a majority.

"The swing to the Conservative Party is bigger in areas that voted to Leave in 2016, with the bulk of the projected Tory gains coming in the North and the urban West Midlands, as well as former mining seats in the East Midlands."

The British pound, which rose when rumours of the poll results circulated, shot up when it was published, rising half a cent in minutes to hit a day's high of $1.2948.

The main opposition Labour Party is on track to secure 211 seats, down from 262, according to the YouGov model.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) was on 43, the Liberal Democrats on 13 and the Brexit Party was not expected to win any seats.

The YouGov model crunched data from more than 100,000 interviews over seven days along with demographics, specific constituency circumstances and national statistics to come up with a projection.

It shows the election is now Mr Johnson's to lose.

According to the model, the Conservatives would gain 47 seats: 44 from Labour, two from the Lib Dems and the seat previously held by the Speaker of parliament.

Labour are not on course to win any new seats.

"Most seats changing hands are ones that Labour won in 2017 that are now set to be taken by the Conservatives," YouGov said.

"What happens in these constituencies is the most important dynamic in deciding whether Boris Johnson has a majority, and how large it ends up being."

The Brexit Party is hurting the Conservatives more than Labour, while independents are finding it difficult to pick up seats, according to the model.

It showed neither Mr Johnson nor Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab are in danger of losing their seats.

Dominic Cummings, who is Mr Johnson's senior adviser, cautioned before the YouGov results were released that a hung parliament was still a real possibility.

"You will see many polls in the coming days. Some will say Boris will win," he said.

"Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are much tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament."

The margins of error in the model put the Conservatives seat projection between 328 and 385, YouGov said, adding that there was still plenty of time for people to change their minds before December 12 - the first Christmas election in nearly a century.

In late May 2017, just over a week before the June 8 election, YouGov's model projected Theresa May would lose her majority, even though she had been ahead in most polls.

The model, developed by Ben Lauderdale of the London School of Economics and Doug Rivers of Stanford University, was accurate: Mrs May did lose her majority, a failure that complicated Brexit and eventually destroyed her premiership.

Updated: November 28, 2019 01:38 PM

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