Blacklisting raises fears of long delay in Iran talks

US administration's action against sanctions evaders to stave off fresh sanctions by Congress could backfire if talks do not resume quickly.

Powered by automated translation

NEW YORK // The Obama administration’s decision to expand its sanctions blacklist during talks with Tehran could lead to a protracted delay in implementing a landmark deal to curb Iran’s nuclear programme.

The delay would make it more difficult for the White House to fend off new sanctions by a sceptical US Congress, which could in turn jeopardise any further negotiations.

“These pauses become interminable at some point,” said Michael Adler, an expert on negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars think tank in Washington. “You don’t want to get to March and the Joint Plan of Action is not being enforced.”

Similar talks between Iran and western powers fell apart 10 years ago in part over a drawn-out disagreement over terms, Mr Adler said.

Technical experts from Iran and the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany extended what were to be two days of talks to four last week in Vienna to decide the parameters for the interim deal. Under the deal agreed to on November 24, Tehran said it would freeze parts of its nuclear programme in return for around US$7 billion (Dh25.69bn) in relief from western sanctions over a six-moth period while a final accord is negotiated.

But the US state and treasury departments on Thursday blacklisted a dozen individuals and businesses for evading sanctions against Iran.

“The administration was between a rock and a hard place and had to do something to head off the Congress, and so they did something,” Mr Adler said.

The move prompted Iran’s delegation to quit the talks hours later. Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi said it went against the spirit of the interim deal.

“The negotiations were halted by Iranian delegation because of new American sanctions. The Iranian negotiating team has halted the talks at this stage and are headed back to the capital due to America’s lack of commitment to the agreement,” Iran’s Mehr news agency reported.

The Iranians’ departure was “quite unexpected”, a senior European diplomat involved in the Vienna talks told Reuters.

US officials insisted the timing of expanding the blacklist was coincidental.

“We have been very clear throughout the entire negotiating process with the Iranians that we were going to continue with designations … They signed on to the Joint Plan of Action knowing that,” said Marie Harf, a state department spokeswoman.

John Kerry, the US secretary of state, downplayed the Iranian departure from Vienna.

“We’re making progress, but I think we’re at a point in those talks where folks feel a need to consult, take a moment,” Mr Kerry said on Friday.

“There is every expectation that talks are going to continue in the next few days.”

Mr Kerry and other senior administration officials spent last week frantically working to convince Congress not to impose new sanctions, which they said would violate the interim accord and torpedo the talks.

Those efforts lobbying Congress appear to have paid off for now, as influential senators agreed not to vote on stricter new sanctions before the end of the year, although they made clear that an Iranian violation of the interim agreement or a failure to extract a viable settlement within six months would end their cooperation.

But the suspension of talks on implementing the interim agreement could lead to a longer delay, and differing interpretations of when the six-month deadline expires.

“Let’s say this pause continues and the JPA doesn’t start to be effected until March,” Mr Adler said. “May comes along and Congress says, ‘Hey it’s been six months since November,’ and the administration says, ‘No, it’s only been two months’, and at that point Congress doesn’t like the way talks are going, it will be very hard to stop them [from passing new sanctions].”

While Iran is unlikely to withdraw permanently from negotiations in response to Thursday’s blacklist announcement, it could bolster the arguments of those in Iran who oppose a deal with the West.

“It will strengthen the position of the hardliners who have been saying the US will not keep their side of the bargain and this is all a ploy,” said Haleh Esfandiari, the director of the Wilson Centre’s Middle East programme. “Not that they will not come to the negotiating table, but the atmosphere of trust and goodwill will not be dominant.”

Leaders in the Arabian Gulf will be watching closely whether Barack Obama can balance domestic politics with forward momentum for a comprehensive deal with Iran.

Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, this month visited the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman to try to convince them that a nuclear deal would clear the way for mutually beneficial economic ties and greater security.

But Gulf countries remain suspicious of Iran’s intentions, and worry that a deal could give Tehran cover and resources to pursue regional involvement, especially in Syria, Lebanon and Bahrain.

In testimony before the House foreign affairs committee on Tuesday, Mr Kerry said a deal would lead to better cooperation on a host of regional issues.

“It is important to note that progress on the nuclear issue does not change our resolve in pushing back against Iranian support for terrorism [and] threats against our friends and partners”, a senior State Department official said.

The Obama administration is seeking a major foreign policy achievement in the Middle East after years of failure, say critics, who cite a lack of coherent strategy to deal with the region’s growing turmoil, and many remain unconvinced that the negotiations will be linked to other issues.

“They recognise that it would require a dialogue not with the Iranian foreign ministry, but with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, who control Iran’s policy on these highly securitised issues,” said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

“Iran and the Gulf countries have very divergent interests in Syria, Bahrain, Lebanon, and Iraq, which cannot be reconciled with words and smiles.”

tkhan@thenational.ae