Militants from Asia, Russia and Europe outnumber Arab jihadists in Pakistan
PESHAWAR, Pakistan // In the Pakistani tribal regions that harbor Al Qaeda and a cauldron of other jihadist groups, militants from Central Asia, China, Turkey and even Germany are growing in number, eclipsing Arabs and possibly raising new challenges not just for the US but for Europe, Russia and China, say intelligence officials, analysts and residents of the area.
Al Qaeda, the organisation that plotted the September 11 attacks from Afghanistan, consisted largely of Arabs, who were led by Osama bin Laden, a Saudi. But stepped-up US drone strikes, Pakistani military offensives and dwindling cash reserves have driven out many of the Arabic-speakers in recent years, says Mahmood Shah, a retired brigadier and former security official in the tribal regions.
While there are no exact numbers, Mr Shah said intelligence sources in the tribal regions put the number of Arab and African jihadists at about 1,500, compared with 3,500 to 4,000 ranging from Chinese Uighurs and Uzbeks to recruits from Turkey, the Russian republics of Chechnya and Dagestan as well as native and immigrant Germans.
Two senior US officials said the drone war was affecting Al Qaeda numbers and morale. The deaths of high-profile Al Qaeda figures such as Abu Yahya Al Libi, killed in a drone strike in June, have made others skittish, prompting some to leave Pakistan for other battlefields in Syria, Yemen, Iraq or their home countries, the officials said.
In separate interviews, both Americans cited the case of a Saudi named Najam, who lost his legs to a drone at about the same time as Al Libi died. They said Najam, who came from an affluent family, was able to reach an agreement with the Saudi government to return to his wife and children.
Intelligence suggests that Najam's treatment has encouraged other militants to seek similar deals, switch to other battlefields or seek leniency from their governments, both US officials said.
They spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorised to discuss information gleaned from on-the-ground intelligence.
None of the Central Asian groups figuring in the apparent demographic change are new to the tribal regions. Some were welcomed to Afghanistan decades ago during the 1980s Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Others arrived during the Taliban's rule of Afghanistan that lasted from 1996 to the American-led invasion of 2001. The breakaway Chechen government even had an embassy in Kabul.
The September 11 attacks focused global attention on the Arab militants, but the changing demographics could have implications for Europe as well as Russia and China, analysts say.
Analysts and officials who track militant movements say they believe Al Qaeda's leadership, including Egyptian Ayman Al Zawahri, remains in Pakistan, where its redoubts have shrunk further under Pakistani military assaults, according to Mr Shah.
But jihadists from outside the Arab world have been getting more attention.
A report on extremist trends released last month by Germany's domestic intelligence said the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU), headquartered in Pakistan's tribal area, is "widening its sphere in the sense of global jihad to include Europe". Once dominated by ethnic Uzbeks, the IJU has sought to recruit German converts who have embraced a radical form of Islam as well as Germans of Turkish origin, say analysts familiar with the organisation.
The IJU, like other jihadi groups, seeks the installation, if necessary by force, of Islamic governments and revenge for western attacks. In 2005 the US state department designated the IJU a foreign terrorist organisation.
For the past 30 years, Bruce Hoffman, director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies at Washington's Georgetown University, has been tracking terrorist groups and studying insurgencies. He said that European governments as well as China and Russia have good reason to keep a close eye on the tribal regions of Pakistan.
Along with strengthening their access to German converts, the IJU, according to Mr Hoffman, has ties to disaffected members of China's Muslim Uighur minority, concentrated in Xinjiang, western China, whose radicalisation "the Chinese are very concerned about".
Russia too has strong interests in the Muslim-dominated republics that were part of the Soviet Union, and in Chechnya and Dagestan, Mr Hoffman said.
The threat from the changing jihadist demographics is "more in the future than immediately. The main threat is that the existing nucleus will attract more and as time goes on the threat will increase. It exists now, but at a lower level," he said.
Ivan Safranchuk, an associate professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, said that the governments of the Central Asian republics also fear instability from neighbouring Afghanistan once Nato and US troops leave in 2014
Mr Safranchuk, who edits the Great Game, a magazine focused on Central Asia, said training camps in Pakistan have attracted mostly Uighurs and recruits from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Stephen Sestanovich, an expert on Russian and Eurasian affairs at the US-based Council on Foreign Relations, agreed that Russia and the Central Asian republics have a stake in what happens after the 2014 withdrawal.
"It's a reminder to the Russians that the US departure from Afghanistan is going to be a very mixed blessing. That's why (Russian President Vladimir) Putin has actually been talking up Russia's stake in American success there. Putin and Russian intelligence doubtless worry that Central Asia will be destabilised."
Updated: September 3, 2012 04:00 AM