Assad's future in doubt after Damascus bomb blast

Rebels predict collapse of Syrian regime 'within weeks' following deaths of president's defence minister and his brother-in-law.

This image made from video released by the Syrian official news agency Sana purports to show Syrian troops fighting rebels in the Al Midan area in Damascus on Tuesday.
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BEIRUT AND WASHINGTON // Opponents of the Syrian president, Bashar Al Assad, have predicted the inevitable collapse of his regime after a bomb blast ripped through the heart of his security team yesterday, killing his defence minister, brother-in-law and security adviser.

"This is the final phase. They will fall very soon," said Abdulbaset Saida, the head of the opposition Syrian National Council, after the attack at the National Security headquarters in the Rawda district of Damascus.

"Today is a turning point in Syria's history. It will put more pressure on the regime and bring an end very soon - a matter of weeks or months."

The bomb blast came shortly after the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) announced the start of a decisive battle to "liberate" the Syrian capital.

Syrian state media said Dawood Rajha, Syria's defence minister, Asef Shawkat, who was the deputy defence minister as well as Mr Al Assad's brother-in-law, and General Hassan Turkmani, the head of the regime's crisis cell, were all killed when a "terrorist explosion" targeted a high-level security meeting.

The Syrian interior minister, Mohammed Al Shaar, and the country's intelligence chief, Hisham Bekhtyar, were believed to be among those injured.

The FSA yesterday claimed responsibility for the attack which initial reports suggested was carried out by a suicide bomber. However, Riad Al Asaad, the FSA commander, told the Associated Press that his forces had planted a bomb in the room and detonated it.

All those involved in carrying out the attack are safe, the FSA commander said.

In a statement, the rebel army's command described the operation as the "first in a series ... aimed at bringing down Assad and the pillars and symbols of the regime, whether civilian or military".

As the fighting inched closer to the centre of the regime's power, the FSA spokesman, Col Kassem Saadeddine, said "victory is nigh".

Another rebel group, Liwa Al Islam - which means The Brigade of Islam - also claimed responsibility in a statement on its Facebook page.

The General Command of the Army said it was resolute in eliminating acts of terrorism.

"Syria, people, army and leadership, is today more determined to counter terrorism with all its forms and cutting off the hand of whoever thinks to harm Syria's security," the command said in a statement issued through Sana, the state news agency.

Mr Al Assad yesterday immediately appointed Gen Fahd Al Freij as the new deputy commander-in-chief of the Syrian army and minister of defence.

The bombing is the strongest sign yet that the future of the Al Assad regime may be decided on the battlefield, rather than at the negotiating table.

On the diplomatic front, the UN Security Council last night postponed a vote on a western-drafted resolution calling for sanctions against Syria following a request from international envoy Kofi Annan, who called for the Security Council members to take "strong and concerted action" to end the violence in Syria.

The vote will take place today, said Britain's UN ambassador, Mark Lyall Grant, whose country took the lead in drawing up the sanctions resolution.

The draft resolution leaves open the possibility of the use of force under Chapter Seven of the UN charter - something Russia has rejected.

Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, and his US counterpart, Barack Obama, were unable to solve their differences "in achieving a settlement" on Syria in a phone conversation last night, the Kremlin said.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday that supporting the UN resolution would mean siding with the opposition.

"Now the Damascus Volcano, the battle for the capital and a decisive battle have been declared in Syria," he said. "Adopting the resolution would mean outright support of a revolutionary movement."

Russia has presented its own resolution that simply extends the UN observer mission - suspended since last month because of the upsurge in violence - without a threat of sanctions. That could call the West's bluff and force it to decide whether to let the mandate of the 300-man observer team expire tomorrow.

"We would have to look with a sober mind, if the Russians veto," at letting the observer mission end, a European official said.

Yesterday's attack struck right at the heart of Syria's ruling elite. While Rajha, a 65-year-old Christian, held the more senior position of minister of defence, it was Shawkat, husband to Bushra, Mr Al Assad's older sister, who was seen as a central Al Assad family figure.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights described his death as a "decisive blow" for the regime. US diplomatic cables published by WikiLeaks described him as part of Syria's "killing problem". In 2006, Washington placed sanctions on him after he was suspected of involvement in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.

More recently, Shawkat, 62, was seen an architect of the government's violent response to the revolt against the regime.

The US defence secretary, Leon Panetta, said the situation in Syria was "rapidly spinning out of control" and the US Treasury Department yesterday announced sanctions against 29 members of the regime, including the ministers of finance, economy, justice and information, as well as the governor of the central bank.

David Cohen, a Treasury official, described the move as part of an "unwavering commitment" to press Assad's regime to "relinquish power".

The US administration said that while the US "does not welcome bloodshed", Rajha and Shawkat were both "key architects of the Assad regime's assault on the Syrian people".

"As we have been predicting for some time, the Assad regime's desperate attempts to cling to power will only lead to further chaos and suffering, underscoring the urgency of a political transition," a State Department official said on condition of anonymity.

"It is past time for the UN Security Council to stand up and put the full weight of its support behind the Annan plan to facilitate that transition and an immediate end to violence."

But we may just have witnessed the beginning of the endgame, said Wayne White a scholar with the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank.

"The government is definitely besieged," Mr White said.

Nevertheless, yesterday's bombing could provide an "electric shock" to the opposition, he said. Shawkat, Mr Assad's brother-in-law, was "one of the most feared figures" in Syria, and probably a more important target for the Syrian rebels than the defence minister, Mr White said.

The bombing "could really swell the ranks of the opposition", he added.

The attack came as fighting raged in the capital for the fourth consecutive day, which has brought the crisis ever closer to the centre of the Syrian government's power.

Yesterday, at least 100 people were killed across the country, according to the Local Coordination Committees, an activist network, as violence was reported in Damascus and beyond.

okarmi@thenational.ae

* With additional reporting by Joe Lauria at the United Nations, Reuters, Agence France-Presse and the Associated Press