Arabia is famous for its clear blue skies, but it turns out there are clouds on the horizon for the region's burgeoning aviation industry. The National reported yesterday that the success of airlines such as Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways is being threatened by gridlock because between 40 and 60 per cent of the airspace is reserved for military use.
As Tony Tyler, director general of the International Air Transport Association (Iata), told the Global Aviation Summit in Abu Dhabi: “We are trying to squeeze the fast-growing civil aviation component into a fraction of the airspace.” He called for more airspace to be allocated for civilian use and for it to be managed more efficiently.
Gridlock is just one of the logistical challenges facing the booming aviation sector in the region, which saw passenger numbers in February increase by 15.6 per cent for Etihad and 11.7 per cent for Emirates. The latter is now flying more than a million passengers every week.
Both airlines have announced huge orders for new aircraft. Dubai has opened a second international airport at Jebel Ali, while the new Midfield Terminal in Abu Dhabi is being fast-tracked so the capital can cope with projected passenger numbers.
One aspect that the industry needs to keep in mind is the transport paradox in which increasing capacity will temporarily relieve congestion but in time will eventually lead to a boost in overall traffic, with the result that congestion will once again become rampant. The paradox is primarily used to describe road capacity but also applies to the aviation sector, especially when all the projections are for an increasing proportion of the world’s air traffic to travel via the Gulf.
The threat of gridlock in the skies will be resolved by a tranche of measures. These include negotiations for more military airspace to be made available for civilian use but other factors include the trend towards high-capacity aircraft such as the Airbus A380, which will see fewer but bigger aircraft plying routes. Improvements to radar systems will also allow more aircraft to safely travel in the same airspace.
All this demonstrates the growing pains associated with an industry in the midst of rapid expansion. As problems go, this is a good one to have but as the capacity paradox demonstrates, the industry must pay constant attention to stay one step ahead of the challenges.
