Winners, dark horses and player to watch — The National’s Rugby World Cup predictions

Ahead of the start of the 2015 Rugby World Cup, The National's sports desk provide their predictions.

New Zealand are the pre-tournament favourites for the Rugby World Cup. Anthony Phelps / Reuters
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Ahead of the 2015 Rugby World Cup, The National’s sports desk offer their predictions.

Thomas Woods, deputy sports editor

Winners — England

The hosts have an exciting squad and a rock solid fly-half in the shape of George Ford. In several recent warm-up Tests they have started strongly before fading in the second half, a trend they will need to stop. If they win Pool A, they would not expect to face New Zealand until the final but the All Blacks, who start as pre-tournament favourites, have never won the tournament when it has been hosted in the northern hemisphere. This is where England’s home advantage will tell.

Dark horses — Samoa

The Samoans are the best of the Pacific island teams and fans generally know what to expect from them, Fiji and Tonga. That is plenty of pace and creativity but a lack of discipline in the pack. Samoa, however, have beaten Australia, Wales, Scotland and Italy (twice) in the past four years. They face Scotland again in Pool B and could cause an upset.

Top points scorer — Jonathan Sexton (Ireland)

The Irish have never made it past the quarter-finals but should win their pool and set up a likely clash against Argentina in the quarter-finals. That’s at least five games for Sexton to accumulate the points with three of those fixtures — Italy, Canada and Romania — likely to be blow outs. He should also chip in with a try or two.

Top try scorer — Nehe Milner-Skudder (New Zealand)

The All Black winger may not start the tournament as first choice but the former rugby league man is one of only three wingers in the squad. With games against Georgia and Namibia in Pool C, coupled with his explosive pace, he should help himself to a hatful of tries.

Player to watch — Louis Picamoles (France)

The No 8 is a monster capable of steamrollering opposition players. His French side are volatile in the sense that they could easily make the final, or fall in the group stage. They will need him to get them going.

Player of the tournament — George Ford (England)

If England are to win the tournament they will need a near perfect kicking display from their fly-half. But, even at 22, Ford is ice cool and can handle the pressure.

Steve Luckings, senior sports editor

Winners — England

The forwards look imperious, with Geoff Parling and Courtney Lawes back to their dominant best against Ireland in the final warm-up match. In the backs, Jonathan Joseph has a wonderful step, Jonny May’s speed, even from a standing start, can terrify even the quickest of turning defenders, and Mike Brown is as reliable as they come at fullback. The options off the bench: the Vunipolas, Richard Wigglesworth, Owen Farrell, Henry Slade and Sam Burgess are just the sort of impact players to see a game out.

Dark horses — Wales

Warren Gatland, the Wales coach and master tactician has a more settled squad than his England counterpart Stuart Lancaster, one of their four opponents in Pool A. Gatland’s squad is filled with more caps, more experience, a greater number of British & Irish Lions and in Matthew Morgan a player who can conjure up the moments of magic that are likely to settle tight games. England’s equivalent, Danny Cirpiani, will be watching the tournament on TV after missing out on Lancaster’s final 31-man squad.

Top points scorer — Jonathon Sexton (Ireland)

World rugby’s form fly-half should get plenty of practice to kick for goal in a pool that contains France, Italy, Canada and Romania. Sexton’s half-back partnership with scrum-half Conor Murray is arguably the best in the international rugby at the moment. Ireland can expect to go deep into the tournament and a first appearance in the tournament showpiece is not out of the question.

Top try scorer — Jesse Kriel (South Africa)

The 21-year-old wing could help himself to a glut of tries in the pool games against Scotland, Japan and the United States, possibly playing himself into contention for a starting berth at the business end of the competition, with a potential last-eight tie with Australia, England or Wales in store.

Player to watch — Courtney Lawes (England)

The lack of discipline that blighted his tournament four years ago has been curbed and channelled in the right areas. Lawes is now a premier line-out jumper, an unforgiving enforcer, heroic ball carrier and a demon in the tackle.

Player of the tournament — Ma’a Nonu (New Zealand)

It does All Blacks No 12 a disservice to say he is all brawn and no brains. The inside centre is an intelligent reader of the game whose greatest asset, other than punching holes in opposition defences, is simply straightening the lines of New Zealand’s attacks. Very few teams attack his channel — and with his physique it’s easy to see why.

Graham Caygill, senior sports editor

Winners — New Zealand

They may have had a blip in the Rugby Championship, but Steve Hansen’s side are still the best in the world, and they should become the first country to retain the trophy and the first All Blacks side to win the tournament on foreign soil.

Dark horses — Ireland

Never been beyond the quarter-finals but will fancy their chances of reaching the last four, or even better, here. The Six Nations champions should win Pool D, and will fancy their chances against Argentina, their most likely opponents, in the quarter-finals. After that they will have no fear of whoever they face in the semi-finals at Twickenham.

Top try scorer — Julian Savea (New Zealand)

New Zealand will score a lot of points at this tournament, and while the tries are likely to be shared out, winger Savea should get plenty of opportunities to cross the whitewash.

Top points scorer — Jonathan Sexton (Ireland)

I expect Ireland to go a long way in this tournament, and the boot and form of Sexton at fly-half will be crucial if the Irish are to enjoy their best performance at a Rugby World Cup.

Player to watch — Israel Folau (Australia)

Carries a lot of Australia’s hopes on his shoulders as his pace in the back division gives the Wallabies a real cutting edge; every side who face the Wallabies at the Rugby World Cup will be thinking of ways to deal with him.

Paul Radley, reporter

Winners — Ireland

Conor Murray and Jonathan Sexton must stay fit. New Zealand have to choke. It could happen. Possibly.

Dark horses — Argentina

An incomparable forward pack, and enough class at the back. Firepower on the wings, as well as the kicking tee.

Top points scorer — Beauden Barrett (New Zealand)

Daniel Carter will be wrapped in cotton wool for the easy games, leaving Barrett with a flat track for heavy point-scoring.

Top try scorer — Nehe Milner-Skudder (New Zealand)

Not so central to the All Blacks plan that he will be rested against Georgia or Namibia. He can cash in against the best, too.

Player to watch — Sergio Parisse (Italy)

Italy’s inevitable early exit will deprive the world an extended look at one of the game’s greats. More is the pity.

Player of the tournament — Jonathan Sexton (Ireland)

Loves big matches. Which is handy, as Ireland are going to need him to be at his very best.​

Jon Turner, online sports editor

Winners — New Zealand

The No 1 ranked team in the world and for good reason. Strength in depth, a terrifying back four, try-scoring machine Julian Savea, and the fly-half master that is Dan Carter make the All Blacks far and away the most equipped to win the Webb Ellis trophy.

Dark horses — France

A picture of the France rugby team should accompany the term ‘dark horse’ in the dictionary. Three final appearances in seven World Cups is no fluke despite heading into each tournament expected to implode. And in Noa Nakaitaci they boast a wing capable of beating defenders for fun. It’s either a final appearance or embarrassing pool exit for the French. That’s the way they roll.

Top points scorer — Dan Carter (New Zealand)

The veteran fly-half will get plenty of scoring opportunities, even if he is mostly limited to the knockout stages.

Top try scorer — Julian Savea (New Zealand)

Amassing 30 tries in 33 Tests says it all. Savea should be the beneficiary of a rampaging All Blacks side.

Player to watch — Michael Hooper (Australia)

Man of the match in both of Australia’s Rugby Championship wins over South Africa and New Zealand, the openside flanker will be vital to his team’s hopes of securing top spot in Pool A and thus a far easier route to the final.

Player of the tournament — Dan Carter (New Zealand)

The stage is set for the New Zealand fly-half to banish his unhappy World Cup memories. Should head into the knockout stages well-rested and in fine form.

Geoffrey Riddle, contributor

Winners — New Zealand

New Zealand look to have all the right attributes to finally win their first World Cup away from home. They are hardly unbeatable, however, and if either Australia or England top Pool A they could go all the way.

Dark horses — Ireland

Ireland have faltered this summer but it was not long ago that they were ranked second in the world. They have one of the easiest draws and if they beat France a path to the semi-finals is theirs for the taking. Fiji are playing well and could cause huge problems for Australia, Wales and England.

Top points scorer — Dan Carter (New Zealand)

It is virtually inconceivable that Dan Carter will not top the charts for the All Blacks. The reigning champions have an easy-looking pool, but there may be a case for considering Patrick Lambie for the Springboks. South Africa look very assured under his stewardship and he could play himself in to the No10 jersey. South Africa could make hay in Pool B.

Top try scorer — Jesse Kriel (South Africa)

Much like Carter, All Blacks wings Julian Savea and Nehne Milner-Skudder look likely to score the most tries. Like Lambie, however, it may just pay to side with South Africa’s Jesse Kriel. South Africa take great delight in crushing minnows, and if Kriel gets a few games against teams like USA and Japan his pace could be simply too much for them to handle.

Player to watch — Nehe Milner-Skudder (New Zealand)

Modern rugby is all about making planning, but with so few caps under his belt opposition video analysts must be having late nights trying to come up with a plans to stop Nehe Milner-Skudder. The All Black fullback has a wonderful feinting sidestep and his acceleration is like that of a young Christian Cullen. He is not only a try machine, however, and if he drags in defenders he is only making space for others.

Player of the tournament — Nehe Milner-Skudder (New Zealand)

If New Zealand win the Rugby World Cup so many column inches will have been written about Dan Carter and Richie McCaw that it is highly likely one will win the award. Milner-Skudder is the real deal, however, so sit back and watch him make a bold bid.

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