Can Nadal challenge Djokovic and Murray? Will Serena surpass Graf?: US Open predictions

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Ahead of the 2016 US Open, The National’s sports team make their predictions for the men’s and women’s singles events.

AHMED RIZVI, REPORTER

Men’s champion: Andy Murray

The Briton is clearly the form player coming into the US Open, with a 22-1 record since losing the French Open final to Novak Djokovic. He has won his second Wimbledon title during this period and his second Olympic gold, so a second US Open title might not seem so far-fetched. Exhaustion could seem like a concern given the number of matches he has played across two weeks in Rio and Cincinnati, but we are talking about one of the most dogged competitors on the Tour. Yes, his record against Djokovic has been far from convincing in recent times, but Murray is in a different place mentally at the moment with Ivan Lendl back on his coaching team.

Men’s surprise performer: Juan Martin del Potro

For a man who was on the verge of quitting because of wrist injuries, the Argentine has done really well recently. He has defeated three top-five players in his last eight matches – No 1 Djokovic (Rio Olympics 1st round), Rafael Nadal (Rio Olympics, semis) and Stan Wawrinka (Wimbledon, second round). The incredible part is, he has defeated these players without being able to hit his backhands with any force. Imagine the damage this world No 142 could cause at Flushing Meadows given his growing confidence and that majestic forehand. Hopefully, he still has a bit in the tank after an emotionally and physically draining Olympic campaign.

Men’s disappointment: Nick Kyrgios

Remember his last match at a grand slam, that straight-sets demolition by Andy Murray in the fourth round of Wimbledon? And his comments that followed (“I don’t love the sport ... When things get tough, I’m just a little bit soft.”)? There is nothing to suggest things have changed on that front, so expect another underwhelming campaign from the Australian. The US Open has not been his favourite grand slam anyway, with two first-round defeats and three in the third round.

AHMED RIZVI, REPORTER

Women’s champion: Serena Williams

There will be some concerns about her fitness, especially the shoulder inflammation that hampered her at the Rio Olympics and then forced her to withdraw from Cincinnati. Still, Williams has reached the final in seven of the last eight grand slams, winning five, and it is hard to see her coming up short on home soil, especially given the incentives. First, she has the opportunity to break Steffi Graf’s record haul of 22 grand slam titles, and what better place to do it than New York, where it all started with grand slam No 1? Williams will also be determined to make amends for that painful loss to Roberta Vinci in the semis 12 months ago, and the New Yorkers will make sure she gets all the support she needs.

Women’s surprise performer: Madison Keys

The 21-year-old American has often been hailed as the successor to the Williams sisters, and a few good results at the grand slams – including the run to the 2015 Australian Open semi-final – have only cemented that belief. She is not a finished product yet, but Keys could be shifting gears at this US Open. With support from the home fans, Keys and her big serve could cause some damage over the next two weeks.

Women’s disappointment: Agnieszka Radwanska

Radwanska has not progressed beyond the fourth round in 10 visits to New York, and the world No 4 will definitely be challenged to match those modest results this time given the growing influence of the irreverent big-serving, power-hitting young brigade in recent times.

JON TURNER, ONLINE SPORTS EDITOR

Men’s champion: Novak Djokovic

Given his immeasurably high standards, all is not rosy in the Djokovic garden. Two early exits — at Wimbledon and at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games — in his last three events represent an unmistakable dip for the world No 1. Of course, between those two shock losses, Djokovic, 29, won the Rogers Cup in Toronto without dropping a set, so it’s far from panic stations. Still, he enters the final grand slam of the season more fallible than at any time in recent seasons. Therefore, what better way to reassert his dominance than by defending the US Open for his third New York title? He remains far and away the best player on the planet, and in best-of-five-sets format something remarkable has to happen for him to lose. That has already occurred at Wimbledon, and it won’t happen again at Flushing Meadows.

Men’s surprise performer: Grigor Dimitrov

The talented Bulgarian has belonged in the ‘player to disappoint’ section for much of the season, such has been his alarming regression. Once billed as a future world No 1, Dimitrov, 25, has seen his ranking drop from a career-high No 8 in 2014 to No 40 as recently as last month. He admitted that his drop in form had made him “insecure” when on court. However, there are signs of life, and at just the right time ahead of the US Open. OK, he got mullered at the Olympics in the first round by Marin Cilic, but he bounced back with a march to the semi-finals of the Cincinnati Masters, before falling in an epic to the same man that beat him in Rio. The draw will play a big part, but as long as Dimitrov can avoid the elite few in the early rounds, a chance to build momentum can see him go far.

Men’s disappointment: Andy Murray

A player that built a 22-match winning streak that included the Aegon Championship, Wimbledon and Olympic titles, and reaching the Cincinnati final, should be the hot favourite entering the US Open. Momentum is a precious commodity in professional sport and Murray certainly has it in spades. Yet, the counter argument could be that the world No 2 has played an awful lot of tennis in recent months, and might just be in danger of fatigue. Despite his incredible form, Murray is still capable of producing the odd poor performance and if his energy levels are not at their best, it could be an early exit – ‘early’ being relative, of course. He will sail through the fist week, but a last-16 or quarter-final departure could be on the cards.

JON TURNER, ONLINE SPORTS EDITOR

Women’s champion: Simona Halep

Despite a season disrupted by injury and illness, Halep has maintained a level of consistency that has kept her inside the world’s top five. Having won the Bucharest Open on clay in mid-July, Halep made a swift transition to the hard courts, clinching the Montreal Open title two weeks later, before a run to the semi-finals in Cincinnati last week. She is a fine athlete in fine form with great speed and court intelligence that make her a threat at any major tournament. Time for that elusive first major, Simona.

Women’s surprise performer: Monica Puig

If a player is ranked No 34 in the world and has just won the Olympic gold medal on a hard court, then they deserve a mention in this list of predictions. The Puerto Rican produced the tournament of her career to win in Rio, defeating the likes of Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Garbine Muguruza and Petra Kvitova en route to the final where she beat world No 2 Angelique Kerber for the title. Puig will no doubt be brimming with confidence in New York and will be a dangerous proposition for any player.

Women’s disappointment: Serena Williams

It really depends on how “disappointment” is defined. For world No 1 Williams, a six-time US Open champion and 22-time grand slam winner, anything less than reaching the final of your home major should be deemed a failure. Her grand slam record this season is impressive, reaching all three finals but winning just once, at Wimbledon. Her poor showing at the Olympics is a concern and will give her rivals confidence she can be beaten. A shock defeat at the semi- or quarter-final stage is a possibility.

GRAHAM CAYGILL, SPORTS EDITOR

Men’s champion: Andy Murray

He has had a superb few months, winning Wimbledon and the Olympic title, and given the composed fashion in which he won both those events, the world No 2 is in the form of his life. He is due a good run at the US Open. He has not been beyond the quarter-finals since winning the title in 2012, and the only things he should fear are tiredness, given his demanding summer schedule, and world No 1 Novak Djokovic. Djokovic is still the major block to Murray’s title aspirations, but with the high confidence he must have, he will fancy his chances of a first win over the Serbian at a major in three years, if they do end up meeting in the final.

Men’s surprise performer: Dominic Thiem

The Austrian has enjoyed a breakout year, reaching the top 10 for the first time, thanks to his run to the French Open semi-finals. He is comfortable on hard courts, as his run to the last eight in Cincinnati shows, and he has the groundstrokes to go long into the second week in New York. His best previous effort at the US Open was the fourth round in 2014, and the world No 10 will be disappointed if he does not improve on that this time around.

Men’s disappointment: Stan Wawrinka

Wawrinka can be unplayable when he is at his best, and two runs to the semi-finals in New York mean he should not be taken lightly. But the world No 4 has had an inconsistent year, injury problems not helping. He has often cut a frustrated figure as he struggles to find the form that won him the 2014 Australian Open and 2015 French Open. He is capable of challenging to win the event at his best, but given his current form, getting to the second week of the tournament will be an achievement.

GRAHAM CAYGILL, SPORTS EDITOR

Women’s champion: Angelique Kerber

It has been some year for the German. She won her first major at the Australian Open and was terrific in pushing Serena Williams to the limit in the Wimbledon final in July. She has not been beyond the fourth round in New York since 2011, when she reached the semi-finals, but as No 2 seed she should go far this time, and crucially she knows she can beat Williams if they end up meeting in the final.

Women’s surprise package: Johanna Konta

It was in last year’s run to the fourth round that Konta began her surge up the rankings that has seen the Briton move up into the top 15. The world No 14 can be inconsistent, but she has the stroke play to scare some of the bigger names in the field if she can avoid any early banana skins. She will be aiming to match her achievement in Australia at the start of the year, where she reached the semi-finals.

Women’s disappointment: Agnieszka Radwanska

The Pole has often frustrated by failing to kick on when she has looked to have developed some momentum. An early exit at the Olympics was not a good sign, and the fact she has never been beyond the last 16 in 10 previous visits to New York means the world No 4 is unlikely to live up to her high billing.

CHITRABHANU KADALAYIL, SENIOR SPORTS EDITOR

Men’s champion: Andy Murray

There are two ways to look at his US Open preparations: either he will use his recent form and fortunes to clinch a second trophy in New York, or he will tire out in the closing stages. One reason that makes the former scenario likelier is motivation. Something has clicked in Murray’s mind and he is playing like a world No 1. While he did not face Novak Djokovic en route to his Wimbledon and Olympic titles, it looks like he can beat the Serb, who has been below par in recent weeks.

Men’s surprise performer: Marin Cilic

It might be unfair to call him a surprise performer as he has won the title once already, but the Croat has hardly ever been considered a major contender, mostly because of his inconsistencies. The manner in which he beat Murray to lift the Cincinnati Masters last week, however, demonstrated his quality and form. Hiring fellow nice guy Jonan Bjorkman as coach has given Cilic, 28, a renewed sense of purpose. Do not be surprised if he makes the semi-finals, or even final, depending on the draw.

Men’s disappointment: Rafael Nadal

Injury forced the Spaniard to quit the French Open and Wimbledon this year and, although he won an Olympic gold in the doubles, he lost in the singles bronze-medal match to Kei Nishikori. He was then dumped out of Cincinnati by the up-and-coming Borna Coric. Nadal has struggled to recover “emotionally, physically” every time he has had to reset his singles career. It will be surprising if he does make the last eight at the US Open.

CHITRABHANU KADALAYIL, SENIOR SPORTS EDITOR

Women’s champion: Serena Williams

At 34 she is not quite at the top of her game, yet it is difficult to look past the American whenever tennis is played on the big stage. She is also on the verge of breaking two records — most grand slam singles titles in the Open era and most consecutive weeks at No 1. The chance to make history and go past Steffi Graf on both counts could inspire her to a seventh singles crown at Flushing Meadows. It is difficult to see how Angelique Kerber, Garbine Muguruza and Co can stop her.

Women’s surprise performer: Karolina Pliskova

The Czech has not maximised her potential to become a top-five player. She has also not gone past the third round of a grand slam tournament yet. But she will arrive at the US Open fresh from her crushing win in the Cincinnati final over Angelique Kerber. The world No 11 has the serve and groundstrokes to beat the best on her day. With a little more consistency, she could reach the quarter-finals, or even semi-finals.

Women’s disappointment: Simona Halep

She is one of the WTA Tour’s most enigmatic players — brilliant one day, poor the next. Her defeat to Angelique Kerber in the Cincinnati semi-finals had a little more to do with the way she played than how her opponent performed. It will also be interesting to see whether she can “problem-solve” on court, something her coach Darren Cahill says she must do. She has the game to reach the last four, but judging by the way she has played at the majors this year, it is unlikely she will do so.

JONATHAN RAYMOND, ONLINE SPORTS EDITOR

Men’s champion: Rafael Nadal

Truthfully, there are only two smart choices here, and that’s Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic. But if you’re not quite entirely sold on either at the moment — I’m not — then you might be convinced that this is one of the last, best shots for Nadal to snatch a final grand slam title. He looked maybe his best, and certainly his fittest, on the Rio hard courts in conditions that won’t be dissimilar to the New York City summer. He was powerful and determined, and with a couple weeks to shore up his game, has the chance to be a real threat at Flushing Meadows.

Men’s surprise performer: Steve Johnson

The Californian isn’t going to be anyone’s idea of an up-and-coming revelation: He’s a 26-year-old ATP Tour vet with an 88-87 career record. But he’s got a characteristically American big serve and solid form of late, reaching the Cincinnati quarters, the Olympic quarters and the Washington semis. Ranked 20th in the world right now, he could smash his way into the fourth round and maybe even sniff the quarter-finals.

Men’s disappointment: Novak Djokovic

If you don’t have Murray or Djokovic winning, at least one pretty much by definition has to be the disappointment, right? I doubt Djokovic will flame out as he did at Wimbledon, but he’s had a long year — a significant and draining year —­ and of the three Big Four members at this tournament he seems maybe the most ready to take a break for a couple months and just recharge. I just don’t know that the same indomitable confidence is there with Djokovic right now.

JONATHAN RAYMOND, ONLINE SPORTS EDITOR

Women’s champion: Serena Williams

This one is hard to predict, so it feels right to just go down the path of least resistance and pick Serena. Angelique Kerber has been excellent all season and will be a threat, Madison Keys on home soil is an interesting prospect and talents like Garbine Muguruza and Simona Halep are compelling possibilities. But at the same time, after losing the final last year and an early Olympics exit that at least means she’ll be fresh, the ingredients are there for Serena to boss this thing.

Women’s surprise performer: Svetlana Kuznetsova

She’s been on the cusp of breaking through at a tournament it seems all year. Quarter-finals in Cincinnati and Montreal and Rome. Last 16 at the Olympics, Wimbledon and French Open. She also reached the Miami final earlier this season and won a tough Sydney tournament in the lead-up to the Australian Open. The Russian plays hard courts well and just might finally find herself in the semi-finals after flirting with such a run for so long this season.

Women’s disappointment: Garbine Muguruza

She’s better on hard court than grass, certainly, but her main strength is still clay, and I don’t think the Spaniard will challenge seriously for the title here. She was a second-round casualty at Indian Wells in March, got overpowered Victoria Azarenka in Miami and was fairly uninspiring at the Olympics. She did reach the Cincinnati semi-finals, but she’s at risk of getting overwhelmed against a more powerful server (that semi-final loss was a 6-1, 6-3 crash against big-serving Czech Karolina Pliskova).

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