There are, for now, more questions than answers about the alleged plot to kill the Saudi envoy to the United States and to bomb Saudi and Israeli embassy buildings in Washington and Argentina. But as more details emerge, what is certain is that it raises tensions in regional politics and security.
The story, which was first described on Tuesday in a New York court, sounds like a paperback thriller: a shadowy Iranian elite force trying to hire killers from a Mexican drug cartel, a $1.5 million (Dh5.5 million) payoff, a drug-gang informant secretly working for the US and a highly placed target, Ambassador Adel Al Jubeir.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have seen their relationship go from bad to worse in recent months, sparring over Bahrain and Iraq in particular. Just the allegations of a murder plot, whether proven or not, threaten a turn to outright hostility.
But thrillers are simpler than real life. Iran has dismissed the whole story as nonsense. Only one of the two accused is in custody. Nothing has been proven in court. And the US attorney general, Eric Holder, clearly attributed the plot to "factions" in Iran - leaving open the question of high-level government involvement.
To be sure, the onus is now on Tehran to disprove the charges or identify the culprits. An assassination on US soil (or on Argentinian, for that matter) would seem so provocative as to be self-defeating, but Iran has a record of irresponsible and bellicose foreign policy. If elements of its Revolutionary Guard did try to hire the Mexican cartel Los Zetas to commit murder, it would be another sorry chapter in terrorism by proxy, as seen in multiple Hizbollah attacks and the Lockerbie bombing.
These charges will only further isolate Iran from its neighbours and the international community. Saudi Arabia's Prince Turki Al Faisal warned yesterday that "somebody in Iran will have to pay the price" for this plot. The United States quickly signalled plans to further isolate Iran.
These serious charges deserve a strong response. But we must remember that they are still only allegations. Who was responsible and how credible the plot was still remain to be seen. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have real concerns about relations with Iran without undue speculation about this new, nebulous threat.
These allegations come during tense times in Gulf relations. All sides must take a measured approach to avoid further errors. Most of all, Tehran needs to show restraint, as this type of criminal belligerence if proven will ultimately harm its own citizens the most.
