Expectations were low yesterday as Palestinian and Israeli envoys prepared to meet in Amman, at the request of Jordan's King Abdullah, for their first face-to-face talks in 16 months. The well-intentioned Quartet (US, UN, EU and Russia) had asked the two sides to be prepared to discuss security arrangements and borders. But all sides seemed to expect only "talks about talks", a going-through-the-motions exercise rather than a real prelude to meatier negotiations any time soon.
Real progress seems painfully unlikely, which is in a sense surprising: the region's whole political landscape has changed since talks broke down over the issue of illegal Israeli settlements in late 2010.
Indeed, the Arab Spring has transformed public attitudes - not to mention political reality - in much of the region. The Palestinian UN initiative has started to strengthen the Palestinians' political and legal status. Hamas (which wants no new talks) and Fatah have shown hints of willingness to work together. The Syrian regime, which has long tried to validate itself through anti-Israeli rhetoric and gestures, is on the ropes. Israel's relations with Egypt and Turkey have deteriorated sharply.
In such an era of change, it is disappointing that nobody can find a way forward after decades of Israeli-Palestinian stalemate. But almost the only factor that has not changed in the region is Israel's persistence in stalling while hard-line settler groups systematically annex more and more of the West Bank. When Israeli courts have blocked certain settlement projects, the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has sometimes found ways around the rulings. Settlers attack army troops with few consequences.
Israeli settlement is among the most intractable roadblocks to meaningful negotiations, considerably more serious than the Palestinian fragmentation which allows fringe groups to fire a few rockets at Israeli civilians from time to time. Hardliners in Mr Netanyahu's fragile coalition make it easy for him to succumb to his natural inclination towards territorial expansion.
For Israel, there is considerable peril in remaining intractable in a dynamic region. The new political realities of the region are still not fully clear but they will certainly not make it easier, safer or wiser for Israel to continue playing its current game.
