ISIL is making its plans for Saudi Arabia very clear

The recent attack on a Saudi mosque makes it clear that ISIL’s ultimate target is the Saudi nation, argues Theodore Karasik

The governor of Asir, Prince Faisal bin Khaled bin Abdulaziz, comforts a man injured in a suicide bombing of a mosque inside a police compound in the city of Abha. Saudi Press Agency / AP
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Last week’s ISIL attack on a mosque in Saudi Arabia’s Asir province holds much more significance than the recent attacks on Shia mosques in Qatif and Dammam.

The mosque struck by ISIL, killing at least 15 people and injuring 12, was situated inside a Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) headquarters in the city of Abha. The suicide attack – carried out by a 21-year-old identified as Yusuf bin Sulaiman bin Abdullah Al Sulaiman or Abu Sinan Al Najdi, although neither may be his real name – illustrates that ISIL has been able to tap into a cadre of Saudi youth.

The security breach is even more troubling in that Asir is in a war zone – the target of missile and mortar attacks launched by Houthi rebels in Yemen.

ISIL is promising more attacks and issued a statement saying that the suicide bomber had targeted a “monument of the apostate” – referring to the SWAT compound. It described the kingdom’s ruling family as “tyrants” who had aligned themselves with “their Crusader masters” or western allies.

Despite the announcement last month by the Saudi ministry of interior that more than 400 ISIL supporters had been arrested to bring a sense of stability and calm to the kingdom during the Eid Al Fitr holiday, ISIL was able to show its reach and capability by launching an attack far from the core of its so-called caliphate.

That reach is significant because it is probably based on tribal affiliations. Asir tribes not only have blood ties with Yemeni tribes, they have also been involved in recruitment for Al Qaeda, most notably for the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States. Asir is the perfect nexus for extremists of all stripes.

Saudi reaction to the Asir attack was rapid, with Prince Faisal bin Khalid bin Abdulaziz visiting the mosque and the hospital where the wounded were being treated. Saudi Crown Prince and interior minister Mohammed bin Nayef cut short a visit to Egypt, where he was to attend the inauguration of the Suez Canal extension, to return to Saudi Arabia following the attack.

Significantly, ISIL has now declared two cyber wilayats (districts) in the kingdom: the Najd Wilayat and now the Hijaz Wilayat. Hijaz is a reference to the historic western area that is home to Islam’s holiest sites of Mecca and Medina. The name raises the spectre of future assaults in this part of Saudi Arabia, which has not suffered terrorist attacks in recent years. ISIL is clearly dividing the kingdom into geographical areas, both for their attack plans and for their ultimate goal of governance.

There is an even more sinister component to ISIL’s plans for the Hijaz Wilayat. It involves “Fire from the Hijaz” – an Islamic apocalyptic concept with several meanings that is said to signal the end times. Although ISIL hasn’t started implementing the concept yet, Fire from the Hijaz is current in the Sunni extremist universe and any destabilisation of the Hijaz region will be seen through this lens by deviants.

Saudi clerics recognise the concept. Saudi Grand Mosque imam Osama Khayyat said: “What happened in Abha and the news that you heard was actually an act of evil and extreme corruption. It was committed by those who have chosen to be the tools of Satan.”

Quoting one of the verses of the Quran, the imam said: “Satan is your enemy. You also make Satan your enemy. Satan calls you to join his party to be the people of the fire.” He also quoted the Prophet Mohammed as saying that if a man kills an innocent, “he will hold the banner of treachery on doomsday”.

Clearly, Saudi clerical elites see the need to use counterspeech and counternarratives at this juncture.

The Asir attack is yet another wake-up call to the kingdom about its ability to suppress ISIL. During a meeting of security chiefs, Prince Mohammed said: “Such incidents will not weaken our determination to confront and deter, resolutely, whoever attempts to tamper with the nation’s security and gains.” The Crown Prince stressed “the need to intensify preparedness and raise the level of caution in the face of any developments that, God forbid, may arise”.

What is probably foremost among Saudi security fears is the Haj – the world’s largest religious gathering – to be held in mid-September. With the Hijaz Wilayat declared, and with more ISIL attacks likely, Saudi security officials have their job cut out for them. The challenge is to review and increase security requirements for the Haj while also keeping the lid on deviants in the eastern province.

Both Shiite and Sunni targets have been attacked. No one is immune, be they civilians or security personnel. ISIL’s ultimate target is the Saudi nation.

Dr Theodore Karasik is an analyst in Dubai with a specific focus on Saudi Arabia