Changes in region push Pakistan and Russia together

Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Pakistan's army chief of staff, visited Moscow this month, in a renewed attempt to improve his country's relations with Russia.
The visit came after the cancellation, for no stated reason, of Russian President Vladimir Putin's trip to Pakistan, that had been scheduled to begin on October 2 and would have been the first-ever visit of a Russian president to Pakistan. Mr Putin was to have participated in talks on Afghanistan, with the leaders of Tajikistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan. That meeting, too, is to be rescheduled.
Despite the cancellation, Pakistan-Russia connections are growing stronger, a development with great significance for the South Asian region. As Nato forces prepare to leave Afghanistan, new regional alignments are emerging.
As Pakistan's relations with the US have deteriorated, it has become clear that Pakistan is working to improve ties with Russia.
Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari visited Russia in May and the Russian president's special envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov's visited Pakistan in June.
Islamabad currently finds itself with few friends across the globe. Even China has been circumspect about what it can offer to its "all-weather friend".
Pakistan hopes Russia will start selling it more substantial defence equipment. Both countries are also trying to increase their presence in Central Asia. Russia wants stability on its Central Asian periphery and Pakistan remains critical in managing the region. Moscow's outreach to Islamabad is an attempt to get a handle on this regional dynamic.
Russia has taken note of India's changing foreign policy priorities and also of the recent downturn in US-Pakistan ties. The US-India rapprochement has been problematic for Russia. As Delhi moves away from its long-standing ties to Moscow, especially in dependence on military hardware decreases, Moscow too is looking for alternatives. So there are various factors at work in this outreach.
Mr Putin publicly endorsed Pakistan's bid to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a mutual-security grouping of China, Russia and four Central Asian states. He also offered Russian help in managing Pakistan's energy infrastructure. And the Russian leader went on to suggest that his government views Pakistan as a reliable and very important partner.
Russia's Gazprom wants to invest in the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline.
And although Russia has been a beneficiary of the US-India civilian nuclear cooperation pact by signing nuclear deals with India, there have been rumblings in Moscow regarding India's nuclear civil-liability law in connection with the nuclear plant project in Kudankulam, Tamil Nadhu, being built with Russian financing.
Meanwhile, after deciding to ignore Pakistan for decades in its arms sales matrix, Moscow has now decided to gradually start weapons sales to Pakistan.
Russia is the world's second-largest arms exporter, with a 24 per cent share of the global weaponry trade, surpassed only by the United States, which has almost 30 per cent of the global arms market. India continues to buy a large share of Russian arms exports, but New Delhi has been diversifying its suppliers.
As the global arms market becomes a difficult place for Russia to navigate, with China deciding to produce its own weapons rather than procuring them from Russia, Moscow needs new buyers.
India's move away from Russia has been gradual but significant. India's decision to buy the Rafale combat aircraft from Dassault of France was as big a setback to Russia as it was to the US.
Defence sales to Pakistan can open up a big new potential market for Russia, especially since the Washington appetite to sustain Pakistan's military-industrial complex is declining dramatically.
Russian-Pakistani defence cooperation may also involve joint military exercises and an exchange of personnel as well as defence sales.
But there are clear limits here. Moscow can never fully replace Washington in aid, nor in defence dependence. Russia is constrained in what it can do, and Pakistan's needs are huge. It is unlikely that Russia will emerge as a major benefactor. Still, Pakistan wants to show the US that it has some other options.
Moscow has always in the past been critical of the Pakistani military establishment's propensity to use extremist groups to further their nation's strategic ends.
The Russians remain worried about this tendency, and can be expected to continue to press Pakistan on that matter.
The Russian policy establishment also naturally feels strongly about the possibility of nuclear technology falling into the hands of extremists in Pakistan, and has been very vocal about this threat.
Also, Moscow will be cautious in sharing its defence technology with Pakistan as it would not like to alienate India, still one of its largest markets for defence equipment, any further. As fellow Bric countries, Russia deals with India on a number of levels, and many in Moscow will be reluctant to strain those connections by making Pakistan a high priority.
India will be watching this development with great interest but something big would have to happen before Delhi would grow truly worried. India's ties with Russia are historic, wide-ranging and well institutionalised.
Russia will do its best to assuage Indian concerns and Delhi should largely be satisfied with those efforts. But a lot of world capitals will be watching to see how far and fast the new Russia-Pakistan connection will go.
 
Harsh V Pant is a reader in international studies at King's College London