Ethiopia Nile dam talks deadlocked as crisis of reservoir filling approaches

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has said that diplomacy may not be the final option to resolve the dispute

Ethiopia's Foreign Minister Demeke Mekonnen, Egypt's Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, and Sudan's Foreign Minister Asma Mohamed Abdalla sit in a theatre in the Fleuve Congo Hotel in Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, April 4, 2021. Reuters/Hereward Holland NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES
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Talks between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia on the impact of a massive Nile dam being built by Addis Ababa showed no signs of progress since they began at the weekend, raising anew the prospect of the long-running dispute escalating.

Sudanese and Egyptian sources briefed on the ongoing talks said Ethiopia has repeated its rejection of a demand by downstream nations Egypt and Sudan to invite a quartet of the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and the African Union (AU) to mediate in the deadlocked talks.

Instead, they said, Ethiopia was proposing an agreement on sharing the water of the Nile among the river’s 10 littoral states, a suggestion that the Sudanese and Egyptian delegates took to be another time-wasting ploy by Addis Ababa.

The AU has been mediating in the dispute over the past year, but failed to get the three parties to make any progress.

Egypt and Sudan believe the quartet will have the kind of influence the AU alone lacks. They accuse Ethiopia of buying time until the dam, already 80 per cent complete, is fully operational.

Egypt is alarmed that the hydroelectric dam will significantly cut into its vital share of the river’s water, wiping out tens of thousands of jobs and disrupting the delicate food balance for its 100 million people.

Sudan, for its part, says Ethiopia must share data on the filling and operation of the dam to avoid deadly flooding in its eastern region and the disruption of its own power-generating Nile dams.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said late on Sunday that the ongoing talks in Kinshasa, capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo, offered the “last chance” to agree on a formula after decade-long negotiations.

His comment, made hours before the talks began, echoed Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s recent comment that his country, while choosing to reach an agreement through diplomacy, will not negotiate indefinitely.

Mr El Sisi last week made a thinly veiled threat that his country could use force to secure its water share, saying no one should believe he is beyond the reach of his country’s “capabilities.”

“I say it again, Egypt’s water cannot be touched. Touching it is a red line and our reaction if it’s touched will impact on the entire region,” he said.

“The Egyptian border now extends all the way to Ethiopia because of our military cooperation with Sudan,” said Hany Raslan, a senior Africa analyst at Egypt’s Centre for political and Strategic Studies.

“The barrier of geography once seen to be restricting Egyptian military intervention has been removed.”

Sudan and Egypt have in recent months forged close military ties, conducting war games and signing a cooperation agreement.

“If the current round of talks does not produce an agreement, Egypt and Sudan will be left with no choice but to explore other avenues to resolve the dispute, including military action,” said analyst Samy Ibrahim from the Khartoum-based Sudanese Centre for Strategic Studies.

“Nothing can be ruled out. The latest air force and commandos’ manoeuvres between Egypt and Sudan have sent a clear message to Ethiopia.”

Both nations seek a legally binding agreement on the filling of the dam's reservoir as well as the handling of persistent drought and future disputes.

Ethiopia, however, insists guidelines should be sufficient. It says it will go ahead in July with a second and much larger filing - 13.5 billion cubic metres, or nearly three times the size of the first filling - regardless of whether an agreement is reached.

Ethiopia went ahead with the first filling last July without giving notice to either Cairo or Khartoum.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD is built on the Blue Nile less than 20 kilometres from the Sudanese border. When completed, it is expected to generate 6,000 megawatts. Addis Ababa says the dam is key to the country’s development and will pluck millions out of poverty.

The Blue Nile, whose source is on Ethiopia’s highlands, thunders down into eastern Sudan and meets with the White Nile in Khartoum before the two travel together through northern Sudan and Egypt all the way to the Mediterranean.

The Blue Nile accounts for more than 80 per cent of the Nile’s water.