India’s Congress pays the price of its failures

Leaders of India better beware that they can no longer take the common people for granted

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If elections this week in five Indian states portend of anything, it is that the Congress party is in deep trouble. Exit polls indicate the party will lose decisively to the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in four of those states, and will probably struggle to eke out a majority in the other. So if these polls are a test run for general elections due soon, Congress might want to consider what led it to this dire state. (Its opponents should take note as well.)

If it really needs a hint, it is, in a word, the economy. Over the past nine years, the Congress-led coalition has simply failed to deliver enough growth. It is generally accepted that the reality that is India – its sheer size and the depth of poverty entrenched in city slums and dusty villages – requires economic expansion of at least 7 per cent a year for the effects to spread beyond the middle and moneyed class. Alas, growth has retreated from 9 per cent in 2004 to possibly just a tad above 5 per cent this year. At that rate, many people in the country might find conditions recessionary rather than expansive. It just isn’t good enough.

There are many reasons for this state of affairs. Clearly, one reason is the inability of the state to control rampant corruption, which saps vitality out of the labours of working people. But Manmohan Singh, the prime minister, must accept a share of the blame, too. For Mr Singh – often described as a respected economist – has not been much of the hoped-for technocratic leader. The most crucial policy prescription for an ossified economy like India's is reform and liberalisation, and a double dose of that again. Instead, Mr Singh's government has been unable to make up its mind about the necessity for new commercial paradigms. And as it dithers, badly needed foreign investment either is on the sidelines or has been swept up by more progressive suitors.

So it is perhaps unsurprising that voters have shown a willingness to give the BJP another chance – its business-friendly record when last in government must resonate anew. And there is fresh hope that the new Aam Aadmi Party can live up to its claim to champion the fight against corruption – it is apparently putting up a fine show in Delhi, which has been under Congress's control for the past 15 years.

An election is a vote for the future. The politicians now courting India’s voters might want to consider how they can measure up to the expectations of their countrymen.