In less than three weeks, India will elect a new prime minister. If the opinion polls are correct, the next occupant of the throne of Delhi is likely to be the leader of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, Narendra Modi.
Except that as one travels deep into the heartland of north India, it is remarkable to see that the gathering political wave in support of Mr Modi is heavily moderated by caste and other circumstances.
From Mathura, birthplace of the Hindu god Krishna, to Farrukhabad, named by a 18th century local chieftain in honour of the Mughal emperor of the time, to Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh (UP) state (which with 200 million people, is big enough to be a country in its own right) the galvanising pull of Hindu nationalist opinion in support of Mr Modi is discernible.
But just as you are about to believe in the existence of a “Modi wave”, you bump up against a much more ancient Indian code – caste – which even in the 21st century India remains determined by blood, kinship and community.
In parts of central Uttar Pradesh like Mainpuri, Etawah and Kannauj, for example, pro-BJP voters are heavily outnumbered by supporters of the Samajwadi Party (SP), currently in power in Uttar Pradesh, and which draws its support from a lower-caste group called the Yadavs.
Led by Mulayam Singh Yadav, a former chief minister of UP who is the sitting Member of Parliament from Mainpuri, the SP is pulling out all the stops to re-elect Mr Yadav’s daughter-in-law, Dimple Yadav, from Kannauj.
This was once the seat of Ram Manohar Lohia, the great Socialist leader in independent India, and which, since the Mughal era, has been famous for its native “ittar” or perfumery industry.
Mulayam’s son and Dimple’s husband, Akhilesh, was twice elected from this seat before he became the current chief minister of UP in 2012.
All in the family? Maybe, but in this case the dynastic succession is bound to the voters with the glue of caste. Eliminate caste, and the glue will fall apart.
This is why Akhilesh Yadav, campaigning with his wife in Kannauj last week, did nothing to moderate the exuberance of scores of young Yadav men who were yelling their support for “Dimple bhabhi” (sister-in-law, in Hindi), who drive their SUVs at top speed on village roads and generally bullying any poor cop who tries to maintain a semblance of dignity in the middle of this rowdy behaviour.
It now seems that the SP’s rowdies have been giving Kannauj such a hellish time since the party came to power in 2012, that Nirmal Tiwari, the candidate of the pro-Dalit Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), is giving Dimple Yadav a real fight.
In this political battle between the Dalits and the backward castes, the BJP candidate from Kannauj hardly has any name recognition.
Not even Mr Modi’s growing reputation elsewhere can salvage this electorate.
The story in the Gandhi family bastions of Rae Bareli, held by Congress president Sonia Gandhi, and Amethi, held by her son Rahul, is different, because the caste factor as well as pro-BJP feeling is subservient to Gandhi family loyalty in these parts.
Indira Gandhi used to contest from Rae Bareli, as did her husband before her. Indira’s son, Rajiv Gandhi, fought his elections from Amethi, as did his brother Sanjay.
(Sanjay’s son, Varun Gandhi, is fighting from the nearby constituency of Sultanpur on the BJP ticket, an unstoppable cocktail of Gandhi family plus Modi effect.)
This is a family fiefdom, not given to supporting an outsider – not even a Gujarati by the name of Mr Modi.
The BJP’s Smriti Irani is expected to cut into Rahul’s vote in Amethi partly because she retains some of the glamour from her former role as a TV star, because she is a woman and because the people of Amethi seem upset that the young Gandhi scion seems to have little time for them in recent months.
In fact, it is fascinating to see the BJP stitching up its own political strategy across the caste-ridden north Indian heartland, dipping into caste when need be, otherwise flaunting its credentials as a right-wing party that is determined to eliminate corruption, control price rises and reduce unemployment.
Modi, who belongs to the “teli” backward caste, in fact, doesn’t hesitate to tell his caste audiences in Bihar and UP that he is one of them. In Bihar, this is expected to pay huge dividends for the BJP, significantly reducing the voter base of chief minister and caste leader Nitish Kumar.
In Firozabad constituency, in neighbouring Agra, BJP candidate, S P Baghel, admits unhesitatingly that he abandoned the SP that supports the caste and moved to the BJP, bringing his caste followers with him.
As for the eastern Uttar Pradesh town of Azamgarh, a straightforward contest between the castes is on the cards, with the BJP fielding Ramakant Yadav against Mulayam Singh Yadav, who is also fighting from Mainpuri.
As the sun sets over golden wheat fields, still being harvested by hand in this part of the country, it is safe to say that north India's Muslims will vote in favour of a candidate that is best expected to challenge the BJP – until you hear some Muslims in Bijnor, Firozabad, Kanpur and Amethi say they may even vote for Mr Modi, possibly tempted by his promise of economic revival and growth.
Can the heavens fall? Can a political tsunami reach middle India, trumping all else? Can this Indian election upset the best-laid plans of political parties? India awaits an answer on May 16, in less than three weeks time.
Jyoti Malhotra is a political and foreign affairs analyst based in Delhi
On Twitter: @jomalhotra
