Fund managers are warning of a challenging year ahead for the country’s stock markets, after Dubai’s index rose more than 100 per cent last year.
“It’s going to be difficult because most of the re-rating happened in 2013,” said Fadi Al Said, the Dubai-based head of equities at Ing Investment Management.
“The opportunities are fewer, stocks have gone up drastically and they are going to have to deliver. This year is going to be the year of delivery.”
Yesterday, the first trading session of the new year brought robust gains in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
The Dubai Financial Market General Index surged 3.04 per cent, its strongest day since September 15, to close at 3,472.29.
The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange rose by a comparatively modest 1.6 per cent, to close at 4,359.20.
But the bourses have a long way to go to match last year’s results.
Dubai shares surged in 2013, boosted by stronger trading volumes, as foreign investors returned to the Dubai Financial Market amid a recovery in the emirate’s property and banking sector. The DFM index rose 107.6 per cent, ranking it the second best performing benchmark in US dollar terms after Venezuela.
Shares listed on the Abu Dhabi exchange outperformed as well, with a gain of 63 per cent for the year.
“I expect a lot of stocks to disappoint, those who have challenging models and went up because they went up with the market,” said Mr Al Said. “Valuations are rich and people are expecting a lot.”
The fund manager declined to name the stocks he was bearish about.
“There’s two ways investors can be disappointed. If they expect a certain number and the stocks reflect the new reality, or if they expect a major turnaround for a company and nothing changes,” Mr Al Said said.
Sebastien Henin, a portfolio manager at The National Investor, an Abu Dhabi-based investment bank, said finding winners would be tougher this year than last year.
“It will be more difficult because some of the stocks have performed extremely well. It’s not the big opportunities we had one and a half years ago where you were able to buy with a big discount. Now it’s a big difference, this year you have to buy on earnings growth.”
Mr Henin said that he expected some volatility over the coming year but that the overall trend was positive.
“We have strong visibility from the economy and we have more and more projects coming, and more money coming to Dubai and Abu Dhabi,” he said.
Trading volumes were thin yesterday.
“The market is flat,” Mr Henin said. “Maybe we need to take a break and digest the strong rally in the past week. It’s a bit quiet as well, with a lack of local and international news flow.”
Internationally, results were mixed for national indexes yesterday.
Shanghai’s index slipped 0.3 per cent to 2,109.39 points, while Mumbai’s Sensex 30 Index slipped 1.1 per cent to 20,888.33 points. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.1 per cent to 23,340.05 points. Japan’s Nikkei was closed yesterday, but had ended 2013 with a rise over the year of 57 per cent.
In Europe, many stocks spent their first day of 2014 in the red. At mid-afternoon the major indexes were falling, though by less than 1 per cent.
halsayegh@thenational.ae
* With additional reporting by Bloomberg News
