India’s property rally still has fuel in the tank

'The real estate sector in India could be at its inflection point,' said Shishir Baijal, the chairman and managing director of property consultancy Knight Frank India.

Home sales in India took a downturn in the past couple of years. Subhash Sharma for The National
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MUMBAI // India’s residential market recovery in the top eight cities is expected to continue but at a slower pace, with sales rising 3.5 per cent in the second half after surging 6.6 per cent in the first, the property consultancy Knight Frank India said yesterday.

Sales in the top eight cities are projected at 146,336 homes in the second half of this year compared with 141,341 a year earlier, the report said.

Home sales in India took a downturn in the past couple of years, as they were hampered by factors including high interest rates.

“The real estate sector in India could be at its inflection point,” said Shishir Baijal, the chairman and managing director of property consultancy Knight Frank India.

“Factors like lower interest rates and a good monsoon will further boost sentiment.”

A long-awaited real estate regulatory act was approved in India earlier this year, designed to protect homebuyers and establish a regulatory authority – a move that, alongside falling prices, has helped to improve sentiment, Mr Baijal said.

The biggest markets, which are the focus of the report, are Mumbai, Delhi National Capital Region (NCR), Bangalore, Chennai, Pune, Kolkata, Hyderabad and Ahmedabad.

Sales growth has been slower in NCR and Chennai compared with markets such as Mumbai and Bangalore, according to Knight Frank.

India’s central bank over the past year and a half has steadily cut interest rates and in April it lowered them down by another 25 basis points to a five-year low of 6.50 per cent.

Oversupply in India’s property market has also eased, with figures from Knight Frank showing that launches in the top eight cities dropped by 8.6 per cent to 107,120 homes in the first half of the year, compared with 117,200 during the same period last year.

Sales rose by 6.6 per cent to 135,016 homes in the first half of this year compared with 126,616 units a year earlier.

Meanwhile, unsold inventory was down by 7 per cent to 660,000 homes in the first half this year compared with 710,000 a year earlier. Home prices have risen at rates below or at the rate of inflation growth in all cities, apart from Bangalore, according to Knight Frank.

Sushil Raheja, the chief executive of the Mumbai-based developer Raheja Homes, said that there had been a pickup in the market in the past six months.

“Basically the pricing was not high and the loan interest rates have come down and people have tried to take advantage,” said Mr Raheja. “But now the market has slowed down a bit and the conversations around deals have slowed down.”

He said that he expected the rest of the year to be stable in Mumbai.

“It will be actual users that buy rather than investors,” he said.

Knight Frank’s data showed that sales were up by 23 per cent year-on-year in the first half of this year in Mumbai.

“However, considering that sales are 13 per cent lower than the last five years’ average, these are early days to rejoice,” said Samantak Das, the chief economist and national director at Knight Frank India. “We forecast a 16 per cent growth in sales in 2016 over 2015 [for Mumbai].”

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