Mohammed Ali Yasin, managing director at NBAD Securities, makes his market predictions for the coming months.
Profile: NBAD Securities boss says 2014 could be Egypt’s year
What is the asset class and geography you are focused on?
Mainly equities, and to a lesser extents UAE listed bonds and sukuks. We’re focused mainly on the UAE and Egypt, and also the rest of the GCC markets.
What is the outlook for the month ahead?
The equity markets in the UAE will be anticipating the third-quarter results of publicly listed companies, which should start being announced after the Eid holidays, and we are at the end of October. With the current risks and uncertainties also from the US market, I believe we will be continuing to be in side way range consolidating close to the current index ranges. This is true provided geopolitical pressures from around us continue at their current levels and no unforeseen events take place during the month.
What are the main risks (either upside or downside) to the outlook?
The Q3 [third-quarter] announcements, if they show lower growth than what was announced for H1 [the year’s first half], would put those companies’ share prices under pressure. Geopolitical pressures from within the region, if they rise in temperature, could also have negative effects. Also, the raising of the debt limit negotiations in the United States will have negative effects on our markets for short periods if they affect the markets negatively. That is why waiting in anticipation will be the name of the game in October.
What is the best investment at the moment?
Equities continue to be the flavour of the moment with investors, it is just a question of which markets. Saudi could be attracting liquidity from UAE, and I believe the Egyptian market will continue to increase as the political climate settles, although 2014 could be their year rather than 2013.
What was the best investment you were ever involved in?
My business, when I was a partner in a brokerage company in 2007. The family owned 10 per cent in the business and we benefited from the boom in the UAE equity markets then. Returns were north of 500 per cent over a 10-year period.
What was the worst?
Buying commercial and residential property units in Abu Dhabi and Dubai in 2007 just before the crash. Some have not recovered the capital yet. However, they have recovered 40 per cent since the bottom of 2009.