Peter Nowak: Why augmented reality will be a big trend in 2017

Pokemon Go’s success last summer is now attracting hardware and software makers in droves.

Pokemon Go, Niantec’s surprise hit from last summer, has brought augmented reality to the foreground of software and hardware development. Mona Al Marzooqi / The National
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LAS VEGAS // With the Oculus Rift, HTC Vive and PlayStation VR being released last year, the technology spotlight in 2016 was supposed to belong to virtual reality (VR). But thanks to an unexpectedly popular smartphone game starring Japanese cartoon characters, the glory instead went to VR’s less-heralded cousin – augmented reality (AR).

Pokemon Go’s success last summer is now attracting hardware and software makers in droves. You only have to walk the convention floor at the annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES) running in Las Vegas this week to see that AR – the superimposing or blending of computer graphics on to the real world through a screen – is going to be the hot, new thing this year.

Which is funny, because AR has actually been around for a few years. The technology’s first real turn in the spotlight came in 2013 with Google Glass, a set of spectacles armed with an always-running camera. Aside from allowing wearers to take phone calls and record video, the glasses could also superimpose map directions, text translations and other apps on to a screen in front of the wearer’s eyes.

The device flopped for several reasons. The developer version cost a hefty US$1,500 and the public wasn’t ready for the inevitable privacy intrusions of constantly running cameras. It also didn’t help that Google Glass made its wearer look like a science-fiction cyborg.

Pokemon Go’s success is easily understandable in comparison. There have indeed been privacy complaints about players entering restricted areas while hunting the cartoon monsters, but for the most part it’s an unobtrusive game. It takes place entirely on a smartphone screen and there is no video recording happening.

Like many mobile games, it’s also free to play, with players having the option of buying special add-ons and power-ups. That simple model, coupled with the novelty of CGI characters interacting with the real world “around” them, led to half a billion downloads and half a billion dollars in revenue for its creator, Niantic Labs, within the first two months of the game’s release.

Interest has dropped off since, but analysts say Pokemon Go continues to be a top-grossing mobile game. It’s still pulling in US$120,000 a day in the United Kingdom alone, according to analysts at App Annie.

It’s no wonder the AR gold rush is on. Unlike VR, the technology doesn’t require expensive additional hardware. It can be incorporated into the smartphones that everyone already has, or into inexpensive devices that don’t need powerful, high-end computers, like Oculus Rift and HTC Vive systems do.

AR’s other advantage over VR is that it doesn’t cut users off from actual reality with a bulky headset and earphones. The whole idea is to keep the user rooted in the real, albeit slightly augmented real world.

At CES, there are all manner of implementations on display. Toronto’s Modiface, for example, is one of a number of start-ups showing off an AR mirror that allows users to experiment with new make-up combinations or hair colours.

The device superimposes modifications on to the user’s actual reflection almost like a fun-house mirror, offering a good way to experiment with new looks without actually having to go through with them. This sort of AR implementation could do wonders for avoiding aesthetic regret.

San Francisco-based Navdy, meanwhile, is showing off an AR heads-up-display for cars. The translucent screen sits above the steering wheel and displays map directions and notifications. The idea is to curtail dangerous distracted driving by delivering many of a smartphone’s most useful features in a way that keeps the driver’s eyes glued to the road.

Evena Medical, based in Roseville, California, is reviving Google Glass in a manner with its Eyes-On Smartglasses, a wearable product that allows doctors and nurses to see a patient’s veins.

The device effectively gives medical staff X-ray vision and cuts down on needle and intravenous errors, according to the company.

This variety is why AR is likely to outpace VR by the end of this year. Combined revenue from both technologies is expected to climb to $162bn by 2020, up from $5.2bn last year, according to the analysis firm IDC, but AR will increasingly account for the lion’s share after this year.

Still, it won’t be an easy ride for the technology. Proponents will have to remember to avoid making their products ugly, costly and privacy-breaching and, instead focusing on fun and simplicity.

In other words, if AR is to succeed with consumers it will need to be more like Pokemon Go and less like Google Glass.

The tech week’s winner and loser

Winner of the Week: France. A law that gives workers the "right to disconnect" came into effect with the new year.

Loser of the Week: Twitter. Jack Dorsey, the company's chief executive, publicly asked how it could improve service – and users let him have it, complaining about harassment and abuse.

Peter Nowak is a veteran technology writer and the author of Humans 3.0: The Upgrading of the Species.

business@thenational.ae

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