x Abu Dhabi, UAETuesday 16 January 2018

Oil lurks near $46

Prices creep toward $46 a barrel in Asia after the US Energy Department cut its 2009 crude demand forecast.

SINGAPORE // Oil prices crept toward $46 a barrel today in Asia after the US Energy Department cut its 2009 crude demand forecast, stalling a two-week rally. Benchmark crude for April delivery rose 2 cents to $45.73 a barrel by midday in Singapore on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil prices fell $1.36 on Tuesday to settle at $45.71. The department's Energy Information Administration (EIA) said yesterday it lowered its forecast for global oil demand for this year by 200,000 barrels a day from last month and now projects a decline of almost 1.4 million barrel a day in 2009.

Its projection for global oil consumption this year is now three million barrels a day below its forecast from September. The EIA report cut its estimate for the average oil price to $42 per barrel for 2009 and $53 in 2010 from $43 and $55 last month. Today, the Paris-based International Energy Agency will release its forecast for global demand. "The EIA report took the wind out of the sails of the rally and we saw people taking profits," said Gerard Rigby, an energy analyst at First Fuel Consulting in Sydney.

"It highlighted the fact that products demand has been decreasing, not increasing." Oil prices have risen from below $35 a barrel last month as US crude inventories fell two of the last three weeks. The EIA is scheduled to released the latest inventory figures for the week ended March 6 on Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos, expect that the government will report that inventories of both crude and gasoline declined last week.

"If the reports come in with a drop in crude levels, I think the market will bounce back," Mr Rigby said. "If there's an increase, it could go the other way and we sell off a bit more." Investors are also anticipating Opec will announce another production cut at the group's next meeting on Sunday in Vienna. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has already announced output quota reductions of 4.2 million barrels a day, and analysts expect the 12-member cartel will cut at least 500,000 barrels a day more.

"It could be argued that the market has already priced in a production cut," Mr Rigby said. "But I think a cut of 500,000 barrels will probably add $1 or $2 while a 1 million barrel cut would increase prices by $2 to $3." *AP