Profile: Rafi Kadian, a trader with ADS Securities, reveals what to look out for in the coming month.
Looking forward the best trade is long dollar versus the yen
What is the asset class and geography you are focused on?
I am an international trader so cover all the major markets from Asia through to New York, including the Middle East and London. I cover forex (currencies) and precious metals, which includes gold, silver, platinum and palladium, as well as CFDs [contracts for difference] including indexes, hard and soft commodities.
What is the outlook for the month ahead in your opinion?
I would sum this up by saying strong dollar and weak metals. We started the year trying to forget what is happening in the euro zone, but nothing has been resolved and the Cyprus bailout came along to remind us of this fact. The financial crisis means that we will continue to see the dollar strengthening as other currencies weaken. The lack of global growth also means continued weakness with metals.
What are the main risks (either upside or downside) to the outlook?
I am a technical analyst and look at the long term, underlying, behaviour of the markets, but at the moment fundamentals, daily news, keep influencing what is happening. If we do see a further problem with Cyprus or another euro-zone country this could lead to more negative sentiment and drying up of liquidity. I don't think this would be a risk to the outlook but it could lead to a more severe response. Unfortunately, I don't believe that there will be an answer which will lead to strong growth in the foreseeable future.
What is the best investment at the moment in your opinion?
I would look to be long on the dollar, whether this is against the yen or the euro. We did see a small rise in gold when the Cyprus bailout was announced but any gains have been lost and I would suggest that metals will remain bearish through April.
What was the best investment you were ever involved in?
I cannot point to one investment, but in the late 1990s trading equities in the tech bubble was a very exciting time, as was trading US and Swiss stocks around 2002 and 2003. The markets were extremely dynamic with investors who had a large appetite for risk, and who wanted to see very high returns.
What was the worst?
The worst period for trading I have been involved with was in 2009, when the global financial crisis first hit. Liquidity dried up, no one would take on risk and markets almost came to a stop.
This is the first of our trader profiles which will run for three Mondays of each month.