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Abu Dhabi, UAESaturday 20 October 2018

Europe-US talks a 'longshot' to dial back trade war

The goal is an agreement to force China to end "non market-oriented policies" that lead to unfair competitive conditions

European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmstrom will head to New York seeking to shore up the World Trade Organisation. AFP
European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmstrom will head to New York seeking to shore up the World Trade Organisation. AFP

The European Union’s trade chief heads to New York this week to continue negotiations with the United States and Japan, as the three parties seek a way to end what they see as China’s unfair commercial policies and dial down global tensions.

Their plan is to create an agreement to try and force China to end "non market-oriented policies" that lead to overcapacity, create unfair competitive conditions and hinder technological development. The stakes could not be higher.

The EU is engaged in a delicate balancing act, working with the US to address common complaints while also trying to convince President Donald Trump to roll back unilateral tariffs he imposed on the 28-country bloc this year and persuade him against instating other, more punitive measures. Cecilia Malmstrom, the EU’s trade negotiator, will also seek to stem the American assault on the multilateral system by shoring up the World Trade Organisation.

“It’s a longshot, and these talks are at a very early stage,” said Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “But this may be the best way both to resolve Trump’s escalating trade war with China and to address some of the WTO’s key shortcomings.”

Ms Malmstrom will meet US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Japanese Trade Minister Hiroshige Seko on September 25 while the UN General Assembly is in session. The three will seek to lay the groundwork to develop stronger rules for industrial subsidies; state-owned enterprises; forced technology transfers; WTO transparency; and e-commerce.

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Read more:

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The meeting comes after Mr Trump has already hit China with tariffs on $50 billion (Dh183.6bn) of its imports, announced duties on another $200bn of goods coming from the nation that go into effect on on Monday, and threatened levies on another $267bn if China retaliates - which Beijing has already pledged to do. China canceled trade talks that had been planned between the two nations.

Overall manufacturing in the euro area grew at the slowest pace in two years in September as the economy feels the pain from the global trade war. The auto industry - which has been targeted by Trump and is particularly sensitive to larger EU nations - is taking the brunt of the slowdown in demand, according to IHS Markit’s latest monthly survey.

"If this initiative succeeds, it could provide an ‘off-ramp’ from the current” tariff escalation, said Scott Miller, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "That’s good, since US-China bilateral talks seem not to be making progress."

The stakes are high for the EU and Japan as well, who fear the Trump administration could trigger national security tariffs on automobiles and auto parts if they refuse to play ball. In May, the US Commerce department launched an investigation to determine if foreign imports of cars, SUVs, vans, light trucks and auto parts are having a detrimental impact on US national security.

Though US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said his agency would hold off on any new auto tariffs while the EU and the US negotiate a new trade pact, major car exporters fear Mr Trump could still forge ahead with duties if he believes progress is lacking.

Ferrari chief executive Louis Camilleri told analysts on an earnings call this week he hopes “rationality would prevail”, because a “tariff war between Europe and US would be quite dramatic”.