Abu Dhabi, UAETuesday 28 January 2020

A second Great Recession highly unlikely, says Arab Strategy Forum report

There is a 76 per cent chance the world will not witness another Great Recession in the coming decade

A second major financial crisis, such as the one which caused the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008, remains an unlikely scenario, according to a report by the Arab Strategy Forum and Good Judgment. Reuters
A second major financial crisis, such as the one which caused the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008, remains an unlikely scenario, according to a report by the Arab Strategy Forum and Good Judgment. Reuters

The global economy is unlikely to witness another Great Recession-style collapse, despite several indicators to the contrary in recent months, according to a new report.

There is a 76 per cent chance that the world will escape another global financial crisis similar to the one in 2008 in the next decade as central banks have displayed an improved technological ability to adapt and steer skidding economies out of difficulty, said the report by the Arab Strategy Forum in partnership with forecasting firm Good Judgement. It also suggested the Great Recession was an outlier, rather than an expected norm.

“The report provides answers to the most pressing questions today, these outcomes will have a significant impact on regional and global policies," Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi, president of the Arab Strategy Forum and the UAE's minister for the future, said.

"It explores a range of scenarios that will support the decision-makers of today and tomorrow to guide progress and prosperity for generations to come.

“Unlike previous years, this year's reports predict the future of the region and the world over the next decade in the context of the current events that will have a major impact," he added.

The report looked at 11 mega-trends and gave its verdict on how they will shape the next decade. Although the World Trade Organisation is currently under strain, for example, it ruled out the possibility of China, Russia or any of the G7 countries withdrawing from the pact as to do so would cost more than the gains they benefit from membership in the long run.

It also assesses the US's waning influence on the world, citing a 65 per cent chance that it will still be the world's largest economy a decade from now, but also a 33 per cent chance it will be taken over by China.

Similarly, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, may have a diminished role in the world over the next decade, but it can adapt enough to remain viable in a carbon-free world, it argued. There is a 90 per cent chance Opec will still supply more than one-third of the world's oil by 2030, according to the report.

The report will be discussed by former ministers, decision-makers and politico-economic strategists at the 12th annual Arab Strategy Forum in Dubai, which begins on December 9.

Updated: December 7, 2019 08:53 PM

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