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Abu Dhabi, UAEWednesday 19 September 2018

Business jet deliveries forecast to soar to $252bn over decade

Jetcraft predicts demand will keep moving towards widebody jets at the expense of narrowbodied ones

An Embraer Phenom 300 on display at the Abu Dhabi Air Expo. Business jet sales are expected to rebound. Sammy Dallal / The National
An Embraer Phenom 300 on display at the Abu Dhabi Air Expo. Business jet sales are expected to rebound. Sammy Dallal / The National

The US-based pre-owned aircraft broker Jetcraft on Wednesday forecast an increase in business jet deliveries over the next 10 years, as corporate America spends more money and the rich get wealthier and open their wallets, especially in Asia.

Jetcraft forecast deliveries of 8,349 aircraft worth about US$252 billion based on 2017 prices, with North America having the greatest market share at 62 per cent. Europe and Asia follow with 17 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively.

In terms of unit sales, Textron's Cessna aircraft will hold the top spot - cornering about 27.3 per cent of the 8,349 business jet deliveries by year 2026, followed by Bombardier at 20.9 per cent and Brazil's Embraer, the maker of the Phenom, at 17.2 per cent.

Jetcraft predicts demand will keep moving towards widebody jets at the expense of narrowbodied ones, with the large jet category constituting 31 per cent of the total unit delivery forecast, and accounting for more than 63 per cent of revenue.

Jetcraft's forecast comes as business jet shipments have struggled to recover after the financial crisis, having been cut in half from their peak of 1,317 in 2008 to 661 in 2016, according to General Aviation Manufacturers Association.

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Business jet deliveries fell in 2016, as billionaires in key markets like China, Brazil and Russia tightened their purse strings as economies faltered, companies slashed budgets and oil tycoons retrenched with record low oil prices.

"Our forecast indicates we are finally exiting the post-2008 recession period, entering several years of steadier, healthier growth and expanding revenues. This new business cycle should shape our industry for years to come," said Jetcraft's chairman Jahid Fazal-Karim.

Canada's Bombardier will be the world's leading business jet maker by revenue over the next 10 years, with a revenue share of about 29.2 per cent of the $252bn predicted, followed by General Dynamics at 27.8 per cent and France's Dassault Aviation at 15.2 per cent, Jetcraft said.

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