Abu Dhabi, UAETuesday 15 October 2019

Boeing raises 20-year outlook for passenger jet demand to $6.8 trillion

Middle East carriers will need 3,130 passenger jets valued at $725bn by 2038 to meet air travel demand

Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner performs a demonstration flight at Paris Air Show, in Le Bourget, France. The world's aviation elite are gathering at the Paris Air Show with safety concerns on many minds after two crashes of the popular Boeing 737 Max. AP. 
Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner performs a demonstration flight at Paris Air Show, in Le Bourget, France. The world's aviation elite are gathering at the Paris Air Show with safety concerns on many minds after two crashes of the popular Boeing 737 Max. AP. 

Boeing forecast a three per cent increase in global demand for passenger jets over the next two decades, dominated by single-aisle aircraft, lifted by strong air travel growth and expanding low-cost carriers.

The world's biggest planemaker expects airlines will need 44,040 jets valued at $6.8 trillion (Dh25tr) for growth and replacement of their fleet by 2038, up from the 42,730 jets projected last year, Boeing said in its annual market outlook, released at the Paris Airshow. The forecast is buoyed by prediction of a 4.6 per cent rise in global passenger traffic, slightly down from 4.7 per cent expected last year.

"Notwithstanding some recent moderation in passenger and cargo traffic growth, all indications are pointing to our industry sustaining its unprecedented streak of profitable expansion," Randy Tinseth, Boeing commercial marketing vice president, said. “The healthy market fundamentals will fuel a doubling of the commercial fleet over the next two decades."

Boeing's optimistic outlook of a growing aerospace industry comes amid global trade tensions, weaker global economic growth and the Chicago-based planemaker's struggles to regain the industry's confidence in its 737 Max narrowbody. Boeing's best-selling jet has been grounded for three months following two deadly crashes within five months that killed 346 people.

Still, it sees the market for new commercial jet purchases and related services reaching $16tr by 2038.

Boeing projects Middle East carriers will require 3,130 new jets worth $725bn over the next two decades, revising upwards its earlier forecast of 2,990 aircraft, to meet growing demand for air travel.

The forecast is underpinned by a 5.1 per cent rise in air traffic during that period, spurring a 4.9 per cent expansion in the region's fleet.

Airlines will use the new jets to meet growing travel demand between the Middle East and China, which is expected to jump six-fold by 2038. Middle East travel to South Asia, Southeast Asia and Europe will grow 3.4 per cent, 2.5 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively.

The Middle East has historic trade and labour ties with emerging markets in Asia. This means its carriers are "well-positioned" to serve Asian markets that are projected to see 1.4 per cent growth in population and a rise in the middle class with a growing financial ability to travel, the report said.

Widebody jets will account for 46 per cent of the Middle East's jet deliveries over 20-year period, the highest among all regions. The Middle East's preference for widebody aircraft is driven by hub cities such as Dubai using their central geographic location to connect the region with Europe and Asia.

However, half the Middle East's fleet will comprise narrow-body jets by 2028, the report showed.

Globally, the new aircraft deliveries will be dominated by single-aisle planes such as the 737 Max, with demand expected to reach 32,420 planes valued at $3.8 trillion. This will be largely fueled by the continued expansion of low-cost carriers and growth for air travel in Asia-Pacific.

Carriers in the Asia Pacific region, which includes China, will continue to lead future growth, accounting for 40 per cent of total airplane deliveries and 38 per cent of total aircraft services spending. North America and Europe round out the top three growing regions.

As global commercial fleet grow, Boeing forecasts that airlines will require more pilots, technicians and crew on the growing number of jets.

Boeing’s 2019 Pilot and Technician Outlook forecasts that the civil aviation industry will need nearly 2.5 million new aviation personnel between 2019 and 2038.

The world's fleet is expected to reach 50,660 airplanes by 2038, crossing the 50,000 mark for the first time, the report said.

Updated: June 18, 2019 03:52 PM

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