Although it has been convened under the banner of “Solidarity and the Future”, this year’s Arab League Summit began in Kuwait amid divisions and turmoil among the Gulf Cooperation Council’s member states.
The summit plans to tackle a number of issues, including the peace process in the Middle East, the Syrian crisis and countering the threat of terrorism in the region.
The most pressing issue, though, will be the rift that has widened between the GCC states with the recall from Doha of ambassadors from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain in protest at Qatar’s foreign policy, especially its support for the Muslim Brotherhood and extremist Islamist movements.
“Such discord runs deep in the Council, which gathers six Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain,” wrote journalist Raghida Dergham in the pan-Arab daily Al Hayat. “They represent six different foreign policies [but] had set the goal of turning the council into a union with a single political representative, similar to the European Union.”
Al Jazeera television, owned by the Qatar government, has been blamed for adding “oil to the fire” on numerous occasions, the writer said. The network is accused by its critics of having ties with Al Qaeda and siding with Islamist organisations such as Hizbollah.
In the weeks leading up to the summit, Kuwait has sought to alleviate the dispute through mediation. It has tried to persuade Qatar to avoid any type of escalation on matters concerning Egypt. This seems to be the “best-case scenario”, Dergham argues.
“Should the Egyptian leadership come to the table and make any demands to classify the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organisation, such a proposal would torpedo the summit and bring the Arab world into further divide,” she observed.
The writer said that Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain should engage in a deep dialogue with Qatar about foreign policies and most specifically about Egyptian affairs, Iran and positions that threaten the security and stability of the three countries.
Dergham stressed that “the three Gulf countries are intent on defeating all efforts aimed at reviving the Muslim Brotherhood, be they Qatari or American, in the Arab world.”
But what if the pressure exercised by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain convinced Qatar to change its policies so as to serve the greater good of the GCC? What if Qatar backed down and apologised?
“This would have no impact on the Saudi-Emirati-Bahraini alliance but it would spread chaos in Qatari internal affairs,” noted columnist Abdullah Nasser Al Otaibi, in Al Hayat. “As for the GCC, it would further its chances of turning into a union, without Oman.”
Such an endeavour would entail drastic changes in the current political configuration in Qatar, with a frank statement of adhesion to the GCC’s greater policies.
What if Qatar decides to hold on to foreign policies that have angered other GCC countries? What if it continues to support the Brotherhood?
“This would impact Qatar on an internal level and rattle foreign policies practised by GCC countries in the region, leading to the Council’s collapse,” wrote Al Otaibi.
Should Qatar decide to maintain its current position, welcoming all kinds of destabilising elements and supporting extremism in foreign territories while maintaining a royal regime, “it will become schizophrenic, as the internal stability gets catapulted into the unknown”, he added.
Could one truly consider the Gulf Cooperation Council without Qatar and Oman? Two years ago, the GCC was looking into a “6+2” formula, that would have included Jordan and Morocco.
“Today, the Council seems to stand before a ‘6 minus 2’ formula, implying the loss of Qatar and Oman,” he stressed.
Both scenarios are unviable for the GCC. Any gain or loss would be fatal – yet it shall forever remain as the Arab union that was most efficient, Al Otaibi concluded.
cmirza@thenational.ae
