The European Union's embargo of Iranian oil imports, passed six months ago, came into full effect yesterday. The consequences for Iran's economy will begin to be felt almost immediately, adding to the country's already considerable political and economic challenges.
And Tehran's response, as usual, has been combative. "Today, we are facing the heaviest of sanctions and we urge people to help officials in this battle," Vice President Mohammed Reza Rahimi was quoted by state television as saying.
The details of how that "battle" will be fought remained vague. Other statements out of Tehran yesterday focused on economic measures, claiming that $150 billion (Dh550 billion) had been set aside in foreign reserves to weather the sanctions, and that Iranian producers would seek out other customers to make up for the shortfall.
But this embargo will hurt, on top of US sanctions levied last year. Oil exports have dropped from 2.5 million barrels a day to somewhere between 1.2 million and 1.8 million this year. American pressure has induced Asian countries to reduce their demand and heightened Iran's isolation. All of this is being felt by ordinary Iranians, with inflation running at more than 20 per cent and unemployment worsening.
The point, however, is not to punish ordinary Iranians, but to influence the government's behaviour in regards to its nuclear programme. After nuclear talks stalemated in Moscow last month, there are precious few levers available - short of a disastrous war - to pressure Tehran for better assurances that it will not pursue a nuclear weapon.
Whether any Iranian government will make that decision, particularly from a perceived position of weakness, is open to question. If the US and European sanctions are to be taken seriously, this situation could go on for months or even years.
And so we wonder what exactly Iranian officials mean when they say they must "confront" the sanctions. In April, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad proved his willingness to drag the UAE into the dispute by visiting the occupied island of Abu Musa. The semi-official Iranian Mehr News Agency has reiterated threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, which would dangerously escalate the situation, although the move is unlikely despite the bluster.
The diplomatic row - and covert hostilities between Iran and the United States and Israel - have obvious ramifications for the region as a whole. If Iran chooses further provocation, its neighbours must be prepared, but they also meet any provocation with a temperate approach.
