A few months ago, the contest for the prime minister’s post in India looked like a predictable affair and was expected to be held between Narendra Modi, of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Rahul Gandhi, of Congress. Last December’s assembly elections in Delhi inexorably altered that calculation, making it clear that the majority of the electorate were seeking more fundamental change.
They cast their ballots in favour of the untested Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), whose founder, Arvind Kejriwal, became the chief minister of Delhi. A few months later, Mr Kejriwal has added a new dimension to India's parliamentary election – to be held from April 7 to May 12 – by declaring his intention to take on Mr Modi in Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, the state that sends the largest number of legislators to parliament.
This duel has sidelined Congress in the state. Elsewhere, the picture is hardly more encouraging for Mr Gandhi’s party: it is faltering and lacks a clear agenda. Despite the illustrious political stock from which he comes, Mr Gandhi is a novice and has been unable to convince voters of his leadership skills or of his ability to face down India’s many problems, which include a stuttering economy, rampant corruption, failing infrastructure, a weak currency and rising inflation.
Mr Kejriwal may be equally inexperienced politically, but he is undoubtedly more popular, despite the dent his ratings received after resigning 47 days into his term. However, that event does not augur well for Mr Kejriwal’s future: politics is about perseverance, negotiation and compromise and being willing to commit to a policy position even if it appears unpopular. Can he really expect the Indian public to trust him if he walks out of office at the first sign of trouble?
Despite being perceived as a deeply divisive figure, Mr Modi can claim to have made progress. Under his leadership, Gujarat’s economy outpaced the national economic growth rate in all but one of the last 12 years. Poverty alleviation, however, remains an issue that Mr Modi has failed to tackle.
That leaves the Indian electorate with a curious collection of candidates, including a political maverick, a political novice and a polarising figure. It is often said that a nation’s leader is a reflection of its electorate and, perhaps, this is the point of this year’s contest: India finds itself at a historic juncture and has arrived there with an identity crisis.
