7c413f299e868210VgnVCM200000e66411acRCRDapproved/thenational/Articles/Migration/2009-Q3Politicians, not militants, hold key to stable Iraq6c413f299e868210VgnVCM200000e66411ac____Two truck bombings last week that killed 95 people in Baghdad immediately raised fears of a return to the horrific civilian casualties of recent years.<p>Two truck bombings last week that killed 95 people in Baghdad immediately raised fears of a return to the horrific civilian casualties of recent years. There are significant security concerns as Iraqi forces take over control from the Americans and the Iraqi prime minister Nouri al Maliki is well aware of these dangers in the run up to January's parliamentary elections. His initial judgement about the security of the capital was optimistic, leading to urban barriers being dismantled prematurely, but as the smoke clears there are more significant lessons about underlying threats to the country.</p> <p>Blame for the attacks has come from all sides, with Shiite groups blaming Sunni insurgents who in turn have somewhat improbably accused the government and US forces. On Sunday Mr al Maliki's government aired a video of a former police chief admitting to being the mastermind of one of the bombings on behalf of Baathist loyalists hiding in Syria. This rapid disclosure clearly served Mr al Maliki's interests, somewhat allaying fears about the security situation, but his nationalist agenda still rests on being able to bring disparate Sunni groups into his camp.</p> <p>The bombings damaged the tenuous confidence in Baghdad's civil society; the hue and cry that followed exposed cracks in its administration. Mr al Maliki called the attack a "desperate attempt" to affect elections in January; a rival Shiite bloc, the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, declared that the country was engaged in a "comprehensive war" sparked by the Sunni minority; the foreign minister, Hoshyar Zebari, warned that the relative peace of the past year seems to be breaking while blaming security forces for colluding with the bombers. Another report accused guards of accepting $10,000 bribes to let the bombers through security.</p> <p>There are undeniable flaws in the Iraqi security forces after the American withdrawal from urban centres, and none so pressing as the shifting and divided allegiances among them. The stability that until recently has been taken for granted was directly related to the role of the Awakening Councils, where former insurgents were co-opted to turn their guns on former allies, particularly the hardline al Qa'eda contingent of foreign fighters. The failure to bring Awakening Council members into the regular military means that minority Sunni militants will remain on the fringes of the political system and susceptible to any revived insurgency. Likewise, ongoing discrimination against former members of the Baathist party creates a fertile field of discontent. Still, the most important area to address is a deal on the division of oil proceeds between the Shiites, Sunnis and the Kurds in the north, with the Arab-Kurdish flashpoint of Kirkuk representing the largest threat to the cohesion of the country.</p> <p>It remains to be seen if Mr al Maliki will take responsibility for assuaging these differences after the election. Yesterday Shiite opposition parties with much stronger ties to Iran formed a bloc to contest the elections, excluding Mr al Maliki's Dawa Party. In turn the prime minister's office announced "a real national coalition" that includes both Shiites and tribal Sunni leaders but notably excludes Kurdish candidates. This is a gamble for Mr al Maliki in the face of intra-Shiite disagreements, but even if he does prevail in January, it still falls short of delivering a long-term solution for stable power-sharing. And without progress across an entire spectrum of divisions, the best case scenario for Iraq will be a partisan government in Baghdad struggling to maintain control.</p> 84YYOPINION2009082500000020090825000000100ARhttp://adedit.ad.atl.publicus.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090825/OPINION/708249903570824990320090825100000000