You do not have to be a market professional, or a regulator, to see something bizarre has happened at Arabtec, the Dubai-quoted construction group whose shares have risen 122 per cent this year.
Among the reasons suggested for the surge: the general improvement in economic prospects in the UAE; a resumption of some government-backed projects; and talk of Arabtec's part in a consortium to build a new airport terminal in Abu Dhabi.
The more hard-headed pointed out that even if all those factors turned out to be correct, the Arabtec valuation was still not justified by the financials.
And on Tuesday the shares began to tumble.
Last night, the Arabtec board met to finalise financial results for last year, expected to be released today, which are forecast by analysts to show a 57 per cent drop in profit on the previous year.
It's a pretty good rule of thumb in the investment world that if something looks too good to be true, it usually is too good to be true. And so it turned out with Arabtec.
The reason for the share price rise turned out to be an old-fashioned bit of stake-building by Abaar Investments, a sovereign investment company owned by the Abu Dhabi Government.
Abaar had been slowly building its stake over the past few weeks, and has at least 5.8 per cent now.
In markets that adhere to international best practice, such irrational exuberance in a stock might lead to a suspension of trading or at least some sort of regulatory raised eyebrow. But no such intervention has happened, and there is no sign any is to come.
So who is the loser? A few investors have made a profit, some others did not do so well - the swings and roundabouts of the stock market.
But the real loser is the reputation of UAE financial markets.