Middle Eastern economies face strong headwinds from regional unrest and new energy discoveries in the United States and elsewhere, Nouriel Roubini, said yesterday.
Demand for energy from emerging markets was likely to remain strong, Mr Roubini said at a conference in Dubai, but new supplies of shale gas may put downward pressure on prices.
"The balance of supply and demand in the next few years is going to be one in which supply is going to grow faster than in the past because of all this new discovery, while demand is going to be robust," he said.
"The real price of oil may be on the declining side if we leave aside the geopolitical risks."
He also said that the rally in global equity markets is not reflecting risks to economic growth from the European debt crisis and US spending cuts,
Global stocks have gained more than US$2 trillion (Dh7.34tn) since the start of this year as central banks move to stimulate greater economic growth.
Risks, including a deeper recession in Europe triggered by austerity measures and political turmoil, as well as slower US economic growth, may return in the second half of the year, said Mr Roubini.
"Those risks are currently somehow underpriced by the market," he said .
"They may be contained in the first half of the year, but they may re-emerge."
Mr Roubini, the executive chairman of Roubini Global Economics, a professor and former senior adviser to the US Treasury and the International Monetary Fund, is sometimes referred to as "Dr Doom" and is best known for anticipating the collapse of the US housing market and the global economic downturn that followed in 2008 and 2009.