Managing a finite resource

David Booth

• Last Updated: April 04. 2009 9:30AM UAE / April 4. 2009 5:30AM GMT

Residents of Salar de Uyini, Bolivia have survived by collecting salt and selling it, These salt flats contain the world's largest lithium reserves, which is the key component for electric car batteries. Noah Friedman Rudovsky / AP

How quickly we have forgotten. Yesterday’s banner headline is today’s inside page filler, consigned to the back of the book as something more pressing forces its way to page one, above the fold.

The subject I’m talking about is oil, the story before all the world’s stock markets decided to implode simultaneously. We used to worry about the price of oil, when it would run out and even non-petrochemical engineers understood the concept of “peak oil.” But whether alternative energy is still big news or not, this much is clear; the world’s oil supply is finite, fossil-fuelled cars pollute and the public desire for an alternative is strong.

The leading alternative right now – if you judge technology by the number of press clippings they generate – is electric cars. Electric cars don’t pollute, electrons are relatively cheap and, perhaps the most important reason of all, they seem to have captured the imagination of the American motoring public, still the greatest economic engine in the world.

Of course, there are issues. Electric cars don’t have the range that current petrol-powered version cars enjoy. Replenishing the onboard energy supply is problematic, taking anywhere from 30 minutes (with special equipment) to all day. There’s also the small problem of the same battery having to power both the car’s engine and its various ancillary and convenience devices; someday soon you may have to decide whether you want air conditioning or to get to your final destination.

And then there’s the least talked about problem on our road to electrified transportation; the source of all that power. I’m not talking about the massive amounts of additional electricity we’ll need to power the approximately seven million cars a very optimistic Carlos Ghosn, Nissan’s CEO, estimates will be sold annually by the year 2020, but the actual batteries that will store all those portable electrons. For, just as we already have a problem with “peak oil” having caused last year’s massive spike in oil prices, there may be a similar paucity in the world’s capacity to produce lithium, the miracle metal that is key to hybrid and electric vehicles.

The lightest metal in the periodic table used to be used mainly in the production of ceramics and high-temperature glass, not to mention anti-psychotic drugs, but about two decades ago started to gain prominence as a material for battery production thanks to the relative energy density and the comparatively light weight of lithium-ion cells. Virtually all mobile phone and laptop batteries use lithium as a core constituent, the much-hailed but seldom-seen Tesla electric roadster actually using more than 6,000 computer-sized batteries all mashed into one package. But, whether they are the lithium cobalt batteries used in portable devices (not very useful for automotive use because of their reputation for overheating) or the newer lithium-phosphate or lithium-manganese formulations developed for cars, all use a base of lithium metal most easily extracted from salt brine.

And that might be a problem. Just as there is plenty of discussion of how much oil remains interred beneath Earth’s surface and whether we are already suffering shortages because of the “peak oil” problem (essentially a theory that says that how much oil reserves the world has is irrelevant since we have already reached our maximum capacity to easily extract it), there may be problems with how much lithium the world has and how quickly we can mine it.

Like oil, there is much controversy over just how much lithium is readily available. On the pessimistic side, there is William Tahil, author of The Trouble With Lithium (parts I and II no less) who estimates the world’s lithium reserves at about four million tonnes and claims that the production of hybrid and electric cars will soon tax the world’s production of lithium carbonate. At the other end of the spectrum is Keith Evans, who has released a countering report dubbed An Abundance of Lithium which estimates there is 28 million tonnes of the base metal to be had, plenty enough to go around. In the middle is the US Geological Survey’s (somewhat dated) estimate of 11 million tonnes.

Part of the difference is how economical and easily each group thinks the mining of lithium will be, dividing their estimates between “reserves” (think of easily-obtained Saudi Arabian oil literally bubbling to the surface) and the more difficult to process “base reserves” (think Canada’s Athabasca tar sands). But even the optimistic Evans allows that, again like oil, his more generous predictions are based on lithium rising in price to make increased mining cost- effective, not good news to car makers as it’s estimated that these new hi-tech batteries cost as much as US$10,000 (Dh36,730) already.

While existing mining levels are able to cope with current demand, there is virtually no consensus on how many lithium-powered electric cars could be produced without dramatically increasing production. Tahil says that any more than 1.5 million GM Volt type vehicles would strain current production (“if the existing demand for the portable electronic sector continues to grow at the current rate of 25 per cent per annum.”). SQM SA, Chile’s largest producer of lithium carbonate says there’s plenty for about 5 million electric vehicles annually. Evans predicts there’s enough lithium for far more. The discrepancies owe as much to the types of electric cars being produced – fully electric cars need bigger batteries, and therefore more lithium, than hybrids – as to the exact nature of the world’s lithium stocks.

However, virtually everyone readily agrees that the world’s production of lithium – approximately 20,000 tonnes – is woefully short of what’s needed if electric car production really takes off. Argentina, Australia and Chile currently account for more than 50 per cent of the world’s lithium production with Russia also producing significant amounts.

But the real power player in the lithium market is, wait for it, Bolivia.

Whether you take the pessimistic or optimistic estimates of its reserves, the South American country’s Salar de Uyuni salt desert has about 40 per cent of the world’s lithium, so far untapped. Mitsubishi, which thinks that electric car production will outstrip lithium supply as early as 2015, is already in talks with Bolivia about sourcing its lithium. Ditto for Toyota, one of the few car makers that produces its own batteries. What’s makes Bolivia’s position atop of the lithium world truly ironic is that one of America’s (and Europe’s, as well) primary objectives is to end its slavery to “foreign oil”, particularly since some of its suppliers have – what will we call it – problematic politics.

Evo Morales, the Bolivian president, though not nearly as controversial as Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, is nonetheless an ardent socialist and eager to ensure that Latin America’s poorest nation is not ravaged of its natural resources again.

According to Time magazine, Morales is adamant that battery production, not just lithium mining, become a source of revenue for his impoverished country. So far, despite the potential for increased demand for the world’s lightest metal, development of Bolivia’s reserves has not proceeded rapidly. However, the incredible irony remains that the United States, where the growth in hybrid vehicles is strongest, could simply be trading one unwanted South American source of energy – Venezuela and its oil – for another.

Of course, the final question is will there be enough lithium for electric cars? Will we be able to mine it fast enough? No one’s answer seems definitive. Besides, the predicted popularity of electric cars could be just environmentalists’ fantasy. Just as easily, battery technology could develop beyond the need for lithium, though at the current rate of development, we seem committed for at least the medium term future. And, of course, we could just have faith in the rosiest of mining and production estimates and assume that all will go swimmingly no matter how many Nissan electric cars and Sony laptop batteries we need.

But I’m not paid to be an optimist. I’m a sceptic. And goodness knows, the world of electric cars could use more of the latter and fewer of the former.


motoring@thenational.ae