Pakistan likely to see giant raise in US aid

Erika Niedowski, Washington Bureau Chief

• Last Updated: March 18. 2009 8:30AM UAE / March 18. 2009 4:30AM GMT

Pakistani women celebrate the restoration of Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, the Supreme Court chief justice yesterday. Arif Ali / AFP

WASHINGTON // Pakistan can expect a massive increase in US aid as part of the Obama administration’s overall strategy for turning around the war in neighbouring Afghanistan – but not first without vigorous debate in the US Congress over just how much and what strings should be attached.

John Kerry, the Democratic chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee, and Richard Lugar, the top Republican on that panel, are expected to introduce legislation soon that would triple non-military aid to Pakistan, to US$1.5 billion (Dh5.5bn) annually, over the next five years. They have proposed another $7.5bn in assistance for the five years beyond that.

Mr Kerry, at a news conference last month to release a report on US-Pakistan policy by the Atlantic Council think tank, warned that “time is running out”. And there is indeed a growing sense of urgency among policymakers here about moving to help stabilise a situation before it is too late.

“If we fail,” Mr Kerry said in a statement, “we face a truly frightening prospect: terrorist sanctuary, economic meltdown and spiralling radicalism, all in a nation with 170 million inhabitants and a full arsenal of nuclear weapons.”

How to fashion a policy for Pakistan – part of a broader strategic review, nearing completion, of the situation in Afghanistan and how to turn the losing effort around – has presented the Obama administration with one of its many early tests.

The ongoing political instability there would seem only to bolster the case for an increase in assistance, as the official thinking in Washington is that the war in Afghanistan can be lost in Pakistan. But some here remain uneasy about the prospect of sending billions more to Pakistan without more assurance that it is a good investment.

The US has accused Pakistan of misusing aid money that was part of the Coalition Support Funds programme, which supports counterterrorism efforts. A Congressional Research Service report in November said “a large proportion” of the billions spent in that programme “may have been lost to waste and mismanagement, given a dearth of adequate controls and oversight”.

And the turmoil there now – diffused at least temporarily when the president, Asif Ali Zardari, reinstated the former chief justice of Pakistan’s supreme court – has raised questions anew about Pakistan’s ability to focus on defeating an insurgency that is a threat both within its borders and outside them.

Patrick Leahy, who is chairman of a Senate subcommittee that appropriates foreign assistance funds, said recently the money will not necessarily flow freely.

“It’s going to depend on events in Pakistan and whether there is confidence here that it can be used effectively,” he told the Washington Post.

“There’s a strong desire to do whatever we can to help Pakistan combat the Taliban and al Qa’eda,” Mr Leahy said. “But if Pakistan is in such a state of internal political turmoil that US aid can’t be used effectively, that’s going to limit what can be done and also how successful we are in Afghanistan.”

Mr Kerry’s legislation – which is similar to a bill submitted last year by Joe Biden, the vice president, when he was still serving in the Senate – predicates military aid on Pakistan making “concerted efforts” to prevent al Qa’eda, the Taliban and other terror groups from operating within its boundaries and from using its territory as a sanctuary to stage attacks in Afghanistan.

Legislators in the House of Representatives have other stipulations in mind. Jane Harman, a Democrat who is chairwoman of a homeland security subcommittee, and several colleagues introduced a measure last week that would restrict funding to Pakistan unless officials make AQ Khan, the father of Pakistan’s nuclear programme, available to US authorities for questioning and agree to monitor his activities.

Mr Khan, who has been accused of operating an international proliferation network that sold nuclear technologies to North Korea, Libya and Iran, was released from house arrest by the government last month.

The Atlantic Council report, Needed: A Comprehensive US Policy Towards Pakistan, calls for an immediate infusion of $4bn to $5bn in financial aid to shore up Pakistan’s fragile economy. Over the next 10 years, the US would provide some $15bn in development assistance – the amount supported by Mr Kerry, who endorsed the report.

Shuja Nawaz, the director of the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, said the funding package would represent a shift in focus away from just military aid – and point to a new kind of relationship between the US and Pakistan.

“There’s been a lot of concern in Pakistan in particular that the United States doesn’t have a long-term relationship with Pakistan, that it has a ‘transactional’ relationship, and that once that transaction is over, then the United States moves on,” he said. “This is, first of all, a very important signal to Pakistan that the US is committed to working with Pakistan and helping it for the long run, with that 10-year programme.”

Not all of the assistance, for instance, is directed at the border region with Afghanistan.

“If it were, then people would say, you’re doing it only to get out of a pickle in Afghanistan,” Mr Nawaz said.

But he stressed that Pakistan must be fully accountable, with better oversight of spending and established performance benchmarks.

“That’s going to be critical in the discussions between the US and Pakistan, that they understand that they have a responsibility and that the US government has a responsibility to its own government and people,” Mr Nawaz said.

“We are making it incumbent on Pakistan to be accountable for the assistance that people are willing to give it, across the board,” he said.

eniedowski@thenational.ae