Sadr’s peace is a bid for power

• Last Updated: August 09. 2008 11:36PM UAE / August 9. 2008 7:36PM GMT

It is almost a year since Muqtada al Sadr, the anti-American Shiite religious leader in Iraq, ordered his Mahdi Army militia to cease attacks on coalition forces. The unilateral ceasefire was meant to last only six months, but Sadr chose to extend it as he focused on reforming his movement, attempting to re-create it as a political party. Now he is promising to disband the military wings of his organisation completely if a date is set for the withdrawal of US forces.

In the wake of the ceasefire, violence levels in Iraq steadily dropped and are now at their lowest since the 2003 invasion. As a result, commerce has begun to revive, and reconstruction projects are accelerating. The security and quality of life improvements for Iraqis no doubt shaped Sadr’s decision to extend the ceasefire. Sadr is concentrating on building his support base in advance of provincial elections and with an eye towards presidential election in 2009. He has been a populist, religious leader and now seeks to position himself as a nationalist figure. It was unlikely that Iraqis would stomach a resumption of the daily violence that defined the first four years of the country’s occupation, and therefore resuming militia activities would harm his ultimate goals.

Indeed, more of the opposing factions in Iraq are turning to political debate instead of violence to achieve their ends. The bulk of the groups that made up the original insurgency are now engaged in the political process. The dramatically improved security situation has also empowered and emboldened the central government. It has taken a tough stance with its foreign occupiers of late, and is seeking a timetable for their withdrawal. And the occupying nations, led by the US, have proved largely amenable to such concessions. Sadr in particular is seeking to capitalise on these negotiations.

On Friday, imams affiliated to Sadr’s organisation urged members of the militia to join a newly-formed non-violent wing of the movement. And a Sadrist spokesman announced that the military wings would be completely disbanded should the US agree to a timetable for troop withdrawals. While it is impossible to judge the sincerity of Sadr’s offer, and equally unclear whether the militia will obey the cleric’s order to disband, it is a heartening move. The more Iraq’s myriad factions turn away from violence towards dialogue, the more Iraq’s future prospects improve.