The politics of Pakistan harms Pakistanis

• Last Updated: August 08. 2008 1:48AM UAE / August 7. 2008 9:48PM GMT

Even for the volatile world of Pakistani politics, 2008 has been a bumpy year thus far, and especially so for the president Pervez Musharraf. In actuality, his troubles began as early as March 2007 when he deposed the Chief Justice, Itikhar Chaudhry, who challenged his re-election as president. The resultant rioting and rebellion by the rest of the sitting justices in Pakistan’s Supreme Court led Mr Musharraf to declare a state of emergency, during which he suspended the constitution and conducted mass arrests of dissidents. Ultimately his re-election was confirmed by the electoral commission, but the popular outcry weakened the president. In the ensuing parliamentary election in February, his party lost its majority for the first time since he seized power in a military coup in 1999.

Now he faces a new challenge to his authority. The current ruling coalition has announced that it will be seeking his impeachment on August 11. The move is being led by Nawaz Sharif, the head of the Pakistani Muslim League (PML-N) and former prime minister who attempted to fire the then-Gen Musharraf and ended up getting deposed himself, and Asif Ali Zardari, the head of the majority party the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and widow of Benazir Bhutto.

Neither of these men have got along since their parties formed a coalition. Mr Sharif’s bid to reinstate the deposed chief justice, a key campaign promise, was blocked by the PPP. Mr Zardari has corruption charges pending and did not wish to see the judge reseated. As a result the PML-N pulled its MPs out of the cabinet and the coalition looked ready to break. The latest move is most probably a show of solidarity, though both men have much to gain if Mr Musharraf is successfully removed.

But it is unclear whether Pakistan stands to gain much should the president be forced to step down. Despite all his faults and long tenure as a military dictator, Mr Musharraf brought economic growth and a degree of stability to the country. As a result of this impeachment announcement, the nation’s financial markets plunged to their lowest in nearly two years. Should the president leave power, the country would likely suffer dual blows to its economy and national security.

The ordinary Pakistani is less likely to care about such indicators than worry over the consequences of the current actions. It is a tragedy that a country such as Pakistan, which has strong institutions and a people desiring democracy, has been ruled by alternating regimes of generals and corrupt politicians. But it is too early to discount Mr Musharraf. He survived a near popular uprising when he deposed Mr Chaudhry and numerous other blows to his popularity. Additionally he was, until recently, the chief of staff of the army, and retains its support.

The military has, and could again, depose the government. Mr Musharraf has the presidential authority to dissolve parliament. Or he could approach the more sympathetic of his opponents, Mr Zardari, in order to block the impeachment proceedings. But the question in the back of Mr Musharraf’s mind and the gamble of his opponents is whether or not Pakistanis will stomach any of these moves. The president is universally unpopular, but the public is also not enamoured of the PPP or the PML-N at the moment. To them it all appears Pakistani politics as usual, and – regardless of who wins this fight — they will be the losers.