Concerns over swine flu hit Saudi's tourist revenues

Wael Mahdi

• Last Updated: November 24. 2009 12:28AM UAE / November 23. 2009 8:28PM GMT

JEDDAH // Saudi Arabia, which has already seen a sharp decline in the number of religious tourists over the first nine months of this year, is facing a difficult Haj season as it announced the deaths of four pilgrims from swine flu.

The Haj, one of the five pillars of Islam, is extremely important to the kingdom’s oil-dependent economy, which relies on religious tourism to diversify its income.

However, this year’s Haj, which starts tomorrow, has been plagued by fears over the spread of the H1N1 virus in addition to escalating political tensions with Iran, in particular its clergy and the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who claimed last month that the Saudi government should not host the pilgrims because of its treatment of Shiite pilgrims and alliance with the United States.

The tension between Sunni-dominated Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran increased after the latter criticised Riyadh’s ongoing air-and-ground operation against al Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Saudi Arabia accused Iran of arming the rebels.

Despite the accusatory rhetoric between the two countries, Saudi officials attempted to allay fears yesterday that Iran or its pilgrims would attempt to disrupt the Haj. The Saudi interior minister and second deputy premier, Prince Naif bin Abdulaziz, told a press conference yesterday that Iranian officials are sending the right signals.

“We heard contradictory statements by our brothers in Iran, but the latest statements were good,” Prince Naif said in Mecca during a visit to the holy city to gauge the kingdom’s Haj preparations.

“We hope that they [Iranian pilgrims] perform this ritual as God commanded us,” Prince Naif said in the statement carried by Saudi media.

Prince Naif said the kingdom does not need any guarantees from Iran not to sabotage this year’s Haj season. “Everyone knows that we will confront forcefully any attempt to tamper with Haj security, but I hope that nothing will happen.”

Tensions between the regional rivals might also affect the number of pilgrims travelling this year to Mecca from Iran, which is among the four largest countries for Haj pilgrims.

There are about 65,000 Iranian pilgrims every year in addition to hundreds of thousands who perform the year-round Umrah rituals.

Swine flu is still viewed as the largest threat to this year’s Haj season, however, because it disproportionately affects the elderly, who constitute up to 40 per cent of the 2.5 million Haj pilgrims each year.

“As the Haj pilgrimage approaches, Saudi Arabia looks poised to witness a downturn in religious tourism, an important contributor to non-oil GDP,” said John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi, a Saudi affiliate of the French bank, Crédit Agricole.

Mr Sfakianakis said there are two forces that will contribute to the decline. The first is the global recession, which has hit tourism worldwide, and the second is swine flu, which has sparked fears about a rapid spread of the infection during the largest annual pilgrimage in the world.

The Saudi health ministry, which said this month that it will not bar anyone considered a high risk for swine flu from performing the Haj this year, blamed the death of the four pilgrims on their failure to take adequate precautions and get vaccinated before leaving their home countries.

Three of the victims – a woman from Morocco and men from Sudan and India – were in their seventies, while the fourth was a 17-year-old girl from Nigeria. The health ministry said in a statement on Saturday that none of the four foreign victims had been vaccinated against the virus and that all four had underlying health problems, including cancer and respiratory illness.

Saudi Arabia has recommended that people over 65 or under 12, those who have existing diseases and pregnant women should not perform Haj this year because of concerns about catching and spreading the flu. The recommendation was issued in response to calls this year by Arab and Muslim states to bar pilgrims entirely from performing Haj. The pilgrimage contributes US$7 billion (Dh25.7bn) to the Saudi economy each year.

In the second quarter of 2009 alone, hotel revenues dropped by 41 per cent and spending by inbound tourists fell 15 per cent in the five months to the end of June, according to data from the kingdom’s Tourism Information and Research Centre. Hotel operators in Mecca have slashed room rates and claim business has declined by one-third or more.

In an economic report issued last week, Banque Saudi Fransi said it expects religious tourism spending to decline by about one-third in 2009 and tourism’s overall contribution to non-oil GDP to fall to 5.6 per cent from almost 6.9 per cent last year.

“Anecdotal evidence demonstrates [that] a drop off in tourist numbers continued into the second half of the year, including during the holy month of Ramadan which began in late August,” the report said.

Although the Haj attracts more than two million foreign pilgrims annually to the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, according to official statistics, the overall total can reach three million, as many locals perform the ritual without getting proper permits from the government.

Saudi Arabia is resisting any attempt by Muslim countries to reduce the number of pilgrims coming for Haj this year, after health ministers from a number of Muslim countries agreed in July to the Saudi recommendation to only bar children, the elderly and those with chronic medical conditions to stem the spread of swine flu.

Saudi officials have insisted the ban, which is pending the approval of Saudi authorities, will not result in a reduction in any country’s quota of pilgrims. Every country is allotted a number of Haj visas amounting to 0.1 per cent of the population, or 1,000 pilgrims per million people.

Egypt, the most populous Arab country, restricted Umrah and Haj pilgrims to those over the age of 25 and under 65, also saying it planned to vaccinate pilgrims against the virus before they travel.

Saudi Arabia announced last month that the effects of the second wave of swine flu had begun to be noticed from the beginning of October, with a 50 per cent increase in registered cases in the kingdom following the first wave, which hit in the first half of the year.

According to the World Health Organization, at least 6,750 people worldwide have died as a result of the H1N1 virus.

wmahdi@thenational.ae