Hamas revises prisoner swap list

Omar Karmi, Foreign Correspondent

• Last Updated: November 21. 2009 11:07PM UAE / November 21. 2009 7:07PM GMT

RAMALLAH // Reports suggest Hamas has submitted a revised list of names to Israel in an effort to move forward a prisoner exchange deal, long expected, between the two.

Hamas officials would neither confirm nor deny the report, but said while indirect prisoner exchange negotiations were ongoing, there was still a long way to go.

“We need more time to find a solution to this issue. There are still obstacles, it’s very complicated and it won’t be solved in the near future,” said Ahmed Yousef, a senior Hamas official in the Gaza Strip who set a timeframe of “months, rather than weeks”.

Earlier in the week, a number of reports had suggested that Hamas and Israel might agree to a swap by the end of this month. Israel is seeking the release of a soldier, Cpl Gilad Shalit, who was captured by Palestinian militants over three years ago. Hamas is seeking the release of some 450 Palestinian prisoners out of a total of nearly 10,000 held in Israeli jails.

Israel is baulking at Hamas’s demands, specifically to release those convicted of having killed Israelis. Israel officially rejects releasing so-called prisoners with “blood on their hands”, though on several occasions that rule has been bent, most recently in a prisoner swap deal with Hizbollah in 2008.

Moreover, progress seemed imminent last month when in return for the release of 20 female prisoners on October 2, Hamas handed over a video of the captured Israeli soldier, the first “proof of life” since his capture.

The latest reports suggest that Hamas has agreed to change a list of 70 prisoners Israel objected to free under any deal. The reports coincided with a visit to Israel of the German mediator involved in the negotiations. Hamas and Israel have both rejected direct negotiations with each other and all talks are taking place either through German or Egyptian mediation.

Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, the Israeli minister for industry and trade, then told Maariv, an Israeli daily, on Thursday that the two parties had agreed to a formula for an exchange and said he believed Cpl Shalit would be free in three months. He did not, however, elaborate, and it is not clear what such a formula might look like.

The upcoming Eid al Adha holiday might provide an opportunity for Israel to begin releasing some prisoners, if any deal includes, as it likely will, a staggered number of releases. And with political relations between Israel and the PLO under Mahmoud Abbas frozen, some have also suggested that Israel might want to move forward on a deal with Hamas in order to send a signal to Mr Abbas that Israel has alternatives on the Palestinian side.

“After the collapse of peace negotiations between Israel and Abu Mazen [Mr Abbas], for which Abu Mazen has repeatedly blamed Israel and Netanyahu’s coalition government, it might give Israel an excuse to negotiate with another partner,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a Gaza-based analyst.

Mr Abusada suggested that Hamas and Israel could come to an understanding based on a temporary Palestinian state in exchange for a long-term ceasefire. As long as Hamas was not required to recognise Israel or an end to conflict, it would not have an ideological problem with such a deal, said Mr Abusada.

This is broadly in line with a proposal by Shaul Mofaz, a senior opposition Kadima party leader, which he announced two weeks ago when the former chief of staff suggested Israel should start talking to Hamas. But there are few signals that the current coalition government under the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has significantly altered Israeli policy vis-à-vis Hamas.

Indeed, US displeasure with Israeli settlement building might cause Mr Netanyahu to proceed with caution regarding any deal with Hamas, Yossi Alpher, an Israeli analyst, said.

“Netanyahu, having aroused the ire of the White House with the building in Gilo, will want to try to soften the blow to Abbas’s prestige should there be a prisoner exchange, if only to appease the Americans,” said Mr Alpher.

Mr Yousef also dismissed any suggestion that Hamas, beyond the issue of a prisoner exchange, was engaged in any negotiations with Israel. Fatah officials have in recent days suggested that Hamas and Israel have opened secret political contacts through third parties.

“There is no basis for this accusation. Hamas is not negotiating with Israel, directly or indirectly, on any other issue than prisoners. Hamas officials are talking to a number of Europeans and Americans to explain their position on a number of issues. Israel is not involved in any of these talks.”

okarmi@thenational.ae