GCC demographic outlook in 20 years

• Last Updated: November 17. 2009 8:46PM UAE / November 17. 2009 4:46PM GMT

“Are there any measures in place to cope with the increase of population across GCC countries during the next 10 years?” asked Kassim Hussein in an opinion piece for the Bahraini newspaper Al Wasat. According to a report by The Economist under the auspices of the Qatar Financial Centre, the Gulf area has one of the fastest growing populations in the world, and is expected to increase by a third during the next 20 years to reach 53 million. 

“Except for Saudi Arabia, the Arab Gulf countries suffer from an imbalance in their demographic composition. They will continue depending on expatriate workers in various fields: retail markets, hospitality services, construction project management, major industries, banks and other financial services.”

The report also underlines the fact that the large youth segment of society will have great ambitions as higher education opportunities will be more available, yet the job market will be less able to absorb all graduates. Another important aspect of the demographic outlook will be the rising presence of women at work, which means many will increasingly waive their traditional role of rearing children to seek a professional career. 

The report mentioned that expatriates will continue to contribute to the development of GCC countries, but the economic cost of their services will be higher than it was before.

Caution is needed for independence bid

“Before heading to the UN Security Council to declare an independent Palestinian state in line wit to the Palestinian Authority’s request, the Arab world needs to walk a tightrope before engaging in this endeavour. The Arabs need, in particular, to lead a diplomatic surge to avoid a potential US veto of their motion,” wrote Saleh al Qalab in a comment piece for the Jordanian newspaper Al Rai. 

If the Arabs are not ready yet to push hard for such an initiative, the whole enterprise may backfire. “So far, according to the information leaked from last week’s Arab Follow-up Committee for Peace in Cairo, the decision taken was vague with no prior procedures or a clear timeline. It also came without a plan to seek international support, including that of the US.”

Caution is necessary at this time because Israel has warned Palestinian that it will annex West Bank settlements if the Arabs take such a step. Thus the Palestinian Authority needs to be helped to face this challenge by increasing Arab diplomatic efforts worldwide to gain wider official as well as popular support.

“Some call for overstepping the role of the UN Security Council and presenting the declaration directly to the UN General Assembly. This move, if taken, may turn into a total failure because the Assembly’s resolutions are not binding at all.”

Hamas massage is clearly inconsistent

“I always recommend reading rather than listening to speeches by Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hizbollah, because that would help interpret messages that may go unnoticed because of noise and other effects,” wrote Tariq Alhomayed in an opinion piece for the London-based newspaper Al Sharq al Awsat.

“Mr Nasrallah, in his latest address, spoke of the peace process and Turkey’s role in the region.”

Reading between the lines, there emerged several important points. For instance, he described the stalled negotiations in terms of frustration and complete despair, since the occupation persists.

“Yet he praised the role of resistance in freeing the south of Lebanon and pinpointed the position of his organisation regarding Turkey, saying ‘We are with a Sunni Turkey if it seeks to defends Palestine, Gaza and the Al Aqsa Mosque.’” 

He also praised the Syrian president Bashar al Assad’s address in Turkey on resistance, but without commenting on his advice to the Turkish government to maintain good relations with Israel. Mr Nasrallah’s ambiguous attitude is so clear.

“His appreciation of the Saudi-Syrian rapprochement is dubious too, especially when he called for restoring friendly relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and ignoring, however, a similar rapprochement between Egypt and Syria,”

Divorce rate should be addressed in the UAE

Maysa Rashed Ghadeer, in a comment piece for the UAE newspaper Al Bayan, wrote that the divorce rate had reached alarming levels: 26 per cent, according to a recent study published by a government office. “Other reports confirmed that most cases occurred among couples in the age segment ranging between 20 and 30, mostly in the early years of marriage. These figures demonstrate how serious the issue is, which leaves no room for exaggeration as some may think.”

The incidence of such a high rate of divorce in the UAE should alarm everybody because of the nature of local society and the proportion of UAE citizens. This situation runs counter to efforts to encourage high fertility to curb the existing demographic imbalance. Because divorce is high among newlywed couples, it may lead to serious social problems if the rate continues to rise.

It is likely that divorce on a massive scale may cause family disintegration and lead to loose social ties. Thus, if the UAE is keen to maintain the stability of the family as the central unit of the community, it needs to seriously and urgently address this issue in order to come up with the most appropriate solutions before the situation deteriorates further.

* Digest compiled by Mostapha Elmouloudi

melmouloudi@thenational.ae