Lack of orders nothing to worry about, analyst says

Mahmoud Habboush

• Last Updated: November 15. 2009 11:30PM UAE / November 15. 2009 7:30PM GMT

DUBAI // The air was filled yesterday with the deafening roar of the world’s top fighter jets as F-22 Raptors, F-16s, F-15s, Rafales and Typhoons were put through their paces at the Dubai Air Show.

But while spectators turned up in their thousands to watch the dramatic scenes above their heads, industry experts predicted new deals made to buy the aircraft would be extremely thin on the ground.

One example of the current malaise in the market concerned BAE System’s Eurofighter Typhoon. Although Saudi Arabia ordered 72 of the multirole tactical fighters in 2007, for US$8.86 billion (Dh32.5bn), it remains the only customer in the region showing any interest.

The chief of British air staff, Air Marshal Sir Stephen Dalton, said yesterday talks with other GCC states over the Typhoon had yet to bear fruit.

“There have been discussions with countries who are interested in buying a fifth-generation fighter,” he said. “But I think at the moment there is no direct interest in the UAE in buying the Typhoon.” Some analysts said they saw yesterday’s stunning demonstration of the American-built F-22 Raptor and F-15 at the show as a reminder from the US that it had some of the most sophisticated military hardware in the world, despite the fact that the Lockheed F-22 is not for international sale.

Theodore Karasik, the director of research and development at the Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Analysis, said the anticipated lack of new contracts was nothing to be alarmed about.

“There are no new orders because the orders that have been placed two years ago are still in process,” he said. “There is no need to purchase anything new because everything is in the production line.”

He said that despite the need to build up their armed forces, the Gulf states could only “absorb so much at a time”.

In February, Abu Dhabi’s International Defence Exhibition culminated in contracts worth Dh18.4bn. The deals included orders for four Boeing C-17 Globalmaster and 12 of Lockheed Martin’s C-130. The UAE Air Force signed a number of other contracts, including one for 48 Italian trainer jets, at the same exhibition.

Dr Karasik said he expected any new deals would involve training or what he called “add-ons and supplement” for older contracts.

Prospective deals, such as the one the UAE has been negotiating with France over its Rafale fighter since June last year, were unlikely to be finalised at the Dubai show.

Nevertheless, the French defence minister Herve Morin yesterday said the talks were “progressing at a good pace”.

“We discussed this in an atmosphere of complete confidence, saying that there is this or that problem,” he said.

However, Riad Kahwaji, the chief executive of INEGMA, said France had yet to come up with an acceptable deal regarding the decommissioning of 63 Mirage fighters operated by the UAE Air Force. A lack of manpower means the country can not operate a fleet of both Mirages and Rafales.

He said that was “a challenge” the French government would have to address before any contract for the Rafale was signed.

But some analysts said it should not prove a stumbling block because it was agreed at the outset that France would deal satisfactorily with the Mirage issue by helping the UAE dispose of the aircraft.

Dr Kahwaji said it was logical for the UAE leaders to consider buying the Rafale. “They are replacing a French aircraft with another French aircraft,” he said. “So, their isn’t any surprise, and the Rafale has what the UAE needs at the moment.”

Industry experts said yesterday that despite France’s apparent confidence regarding the deal to replace the Mirage with the Rafale, its competitors were still battling fiercely to try to make the UAE, and other Gulf nations, think again.


mhabboush@thenational.ae