Kirkuk election compromise fails to end arguments over city's future

• Last Updated: November 15. 2009 1:24AM UAE / November 14. 2009 9:24PM GMT

Residents watch a US soldier on patrol in Kirkuk. There are concerns that the new election law will cause further problems in the region. Phil Sands / The National

BAGHDAD AND DAMASCUS // A political compromise over Kirkuk that has paved the way for national elections in Iraq could serve to undermine fragile stability in the disputed city, opponents of the deal have warned.

Parliament passed long-delayed election legislation last Sunday, a step hailed by the US president, Barack Obama, as a “milestone” for Iraq’s democracy. The laws had previously stalled over the thorny issue of Kirkuk and who should be allowed to cast votes there.

Pro-Kurdish groups wanted electoral rolls based on this year’s voter registrations. Influential Arab nationalist and Turkmen blocs, however, wanted to use older lists, insisting that an influx of Kurds after 2003 would unfairly skew the result. Kurds say their rising numbers in Kirkuk reflect the legitimate return of families forced out by Saddam Hussein’s Arabisation programme.

In the end, and apparently under US and Iranian pressure, a solution was reached whereby the newer electoral rolls will be used, but with a caveat. The law formally recognised the new electoral registers in Kirkuk as “dubious” and, as a consequence, the coming election result there will be considered provisional and subjected to a special year-long investigation after the vote. Depending on the findings of that inquiry, the election outcome for Kirkuk could be modified.

Critics have cautioned that the law was too hurriedly put together and not only fails to address the underlying issues but potentially exacerbates them. As such, they warn that upcoming election, now scheduled to take place on January 21, 2010, could serve to inflame simmering Arab-Kurd tensions.

“With this law it is impossible to guarantee security and stability in Kirkuk in the run-up to the election and after the election,” said Abd Mutlaq al Jubouri, one of the MPs voting against the legislation. “The election records we are using have 500,000 too many Kurds on them and that means robbing the Arab and Turkmen population in Kirkuk of their rights.”

Perceptions of Arab disenfranchisement coupled with Kurdish over-representation in Mosul, 150km north-west of Kirkuk, were a major cause for high levels of violence there and instability has carried on even after this year’s provincial council elections. Mr al Jubouri maintained that to avoid a repeat in Kirkuk, which has enjoyed relative calm, the election there should be delayed.

“The Iraqi prime minister has the constitutional power to postpone the election in Kirkuk if he feels it will be too dangerous,” he said. “I urge our prime minister to do that. A six-month postponement will allow for greater checking of the electoral registration records.”

Arab nationalists, particularly the Sunni blocs that once formed the foundation of the insurgency, have vowed to fight attempts to have Kirkuk brought under the control of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG). The new election law has heightened their fears about a Kurd takeover. If the Kurds dominate at the polls, they may feel emboldened to further push their claim for authority over the territory.

That view was confirmed by Asya Ahmed Khalid, an MP from the Kurdistan Alliance. “This law is in the interests of Iraq and solves the problem of Kirkuk,” he said. “If the election favours the Kurds I do not think the Arabs or Turkmen would challenge the results because the process is democratic and democracy here speaks the truth.

“We do not consider that we have won Kirkuk, I say that Iraq has won Kirkuk by making it free and allowing Kirkuk to now choose its own destiny .”

Officially at least, the outcome of the vote in Kirkuk cannot be used to establish any precedent over the future of the city or other disputed areas, with the United Nations mediating a final status agreement independent of the election results.

However the implication of the election law could be to allow a de facto annexation by the KRG, Arab nationalists and analysts have warned.

And, if the Kurds win extra seats in Kirkuk, their strengthened position in the next Baghdad parliament may give them critical influence over the technical committees of MPs dealing with constitutional amendments. That means a key say in deciding Kirkuk’s fate.

“This law has sold Kirkuk to the Kurds and ended its character as an Iraqi city for all ethnic and sectarian groups,” Ala al Ilyawi, a leading tribal figure in Kut, south of Baghdad, said in an interview. “There has been an under-the-table deal that has now taken Kirkuk from Iraq and given it to the Kurds.”

Mr al Ilyawi said that, because of what he considered flawed election legislation, he would not be casting his vote come January 21, and that he would urge his tribe to boycott the process. “This law may seem good to some but it will only make matters worse,” he said. “The problems will come after the election.”

While the election law was passed, it did so with support of a small majority of Iraq’s MPs. The national parliament has 275 seats and only 141 MPs voted in favour, with 134 either opposing the motion or failing to cast a vote. Its successful passage depended heavily on an alliance of Kurds, the Shiite Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party.

The approval of the new law also coincided with a visit to Iraq by Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Ali Larijani, for talks with senior Shiite clerics. That fuelled speculation among the legislation’s opponents of unwanted Iranian interference.

Backers of the compromise deal insisted that the benefits far outweighed any risks, and that, without it, national elections would not take place, undermining the faltering progress Iraq has made since the sectarian civil war of 2007.

“I see this law as actually helping to solve the question of Kirkuk, it will help clear up questions about its future status,” said Hamid Rashid Maala, an MP from the National Iraqi Alliance, the political bloc that includes ISCI. He described Kirkuk as “Iraqi and not the property of any one group or sect”.

“There will be proper monitoring by the various political blocs to ensure there is no fraud,” he said. “Then with the election done, we will be one step closer to a final solution on Kirkuk and closer to the time when Iraq can stand on its feet, strong and free from division.”

Nizar Latif reported from Baghdad, Phil Sands contributed from Damascus

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