The Gulf’s powder keg

Loveday Morris

• Last Updated: November 14. 2009 12:22AM UAE / November 13. 2009 8:22PM GMT

The pitched battles between Saudi Arabian troops and Yemen’s al Houthi militants which have hit the headlines over the past week are only one of the headaches for the beleaguered government in Sana’a as it battles poverty and depleting oil reserves while struggling to quell an internal secessionist movement.

Nineteen years ago the Yemen Arab Republic in the north and the southern People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen signed a unity agreement, creating the modern-day Yemeni state on the southern tip of the Gulf.

The differing historical experiences, which forged the north and south, helped cement divisions that are still apparent today and that continue to sporadically plunge the nation into bitter civil war.

With 34.8 per cent of the population living in what the UN classes as extreme poverty, natural resources including oil, on which the government is heavily economically dependent, and water, expected to run out in the next decade, concerns are growing as to how the country can withstand these myriad internal pressures.

Add to this, concerns over the apparent growth in grassroots support for terrorist groups including al Qa’eda, whose leader, Osama bin Laden, hails from Yemen, and it is clear why regional powerhouses and the West are watching events ever more closely.

“In the last 12 months, many of the internal problems in Yemen have intensified: the economic crisis, the southern separatist movement, the al Houthi conflict and fears about terrorist groups establishing stronger networks inside the country,” said Ginny Hill, the author of a Chatham House briefing paper on the country entitled Yemen: Fear of Failure. “It’s clear that concern is rising among Yemen’s neighbours and international governments about Yemen’s ability to withstand this convergence of challenges.”

Fractured state

One of the oldest centres of civilisation in the region, the concept of Yemen as a geographical region had been in existence for centuries, but the modern day country only came about in 1990, when economic factors and political instability unified the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen) and the Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen).

The north had been ruled by the Zaidi Shiites for over 1,000 years, and became independent after the break up of the Ottoman Empire in 1918, whereas the southern port of Aden was ruled by the British from the mid 19th Century, becoming a colony in 1937. They left 30 years later and the south adopted a Marxist ideology, with strong ties to the former Soviet Union.

The southern secessionist movement, many of whose leaders were drawn from the Yemeni Socialist Party, led a failed attempt at independence in 1994, which was quashed by government forces in bloody street battles that left more than 10,000 dead. Tensions are still apparent, with several violent protests this year.

“It’s not necessarily a north-south divide, but there is a structural weakness to the state that came out of the civil war, which emboldens any kind of rebellious movement,” said Mahmoun Fandy, a Gulf security specialist at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Strong tribal networks with access to arms further diminish state power, he added.

Al Houthis

The current conflict in the Sa’ada region has intermittently exploded into violence since in 2004, when three months of intensive fighting killed hundreds. According to the International Crisis Group, the conflict features an “ever-growing number of actors, including local tribes and other members of the Sa’ada population, covering a widening area and involving foreign actors under the backdrop of a regional cold war”.

Sa’ada is the religious seat of Zaidism, and though most al Houthi rebels follow this sect of Shiism, the majority of the country’s Zaidis, who make up more than 40 per cent of the population, do not subscribe to their violent ways.

The grievances of the al Houthis, led by Hussein al Houthi until he was killed in 2004, can be traced back to the country’s 1962 revolution, which ended 1,000 years of Zaidi-Hashemite rule in the north. Al Houthi, a former member of parliament, had wide political and religious backing in the mountainous northern region and led an armed group called Shabab al Moumineen, or the Believing Youth.

The al Houthis, now led by Hussein’s brother, argue that the region has remained marginalised and ignored, and have strongly opposed the government’s ties to the US, accusing them of corruption and allowing Saudi interference. Grievances over poverty, lack of infrastructure in the Sa’ada region, the poorest area of Yemen, also fuel support for the insurgency.

Analysts say the government’s heavy-handed response to the al Houthis over the past five years, destroying villages and displacing thousands, has only increased sympathy for the group in the mountainous region. According to Mr Fandy, of the IISS, external influences are also exacerbating the problem.

“It’s not a problem that’s entirely internal, this problem has always been there and Yemen has been capable of dealing with it. What’s new is Iran manipulating the whole issue and providing them with weapons and training,” he said. The Yemeni government has hit out at Iran’s “interference” in the conflict, claiming the al Houthis are being armed by Iran, an accusation both the rebels and Tehran deny.

Yemeni authorities also claim the al Houthis are affiliated with the Lebanese political and paramilitary group Hizbollah and are intent on establishing fundamental Sharia rule in the country.

Al Qa’eda

Washington described Yemen as a “key battleground” during its “war on terror” and there are more Yemeni detainees in the US-controlled Guantanamo Bay facility than from any other single country.

In 2000, al Qa’eda militants launched a suicide bomb attack on the USS Cole, an American destroyer, while it was anchored in Yemen’s port city of Aden, leaving 17 crew members dead and 39 wounded.

Efforts to combat al Qa’eda were dealt a blow in 2006 after 23 militants tunnelled their way out of a Yemeni jail into a nearby mosque.

Western governments criticised Yemen for failing to act quickly to recapture the prisoners amid claims the authorities were unco-operative with Interpol investigators attempting to aid the inquiry.

It is believed that some of the escapees have spent the last three years developing and restructuring the al Qa’eda network within Yemen.

In September 2008 the US embassy in Sana’a was attacked by more than a dozen militants armed with AK-47s and rocket-propelled grenades. Six attackers, six Yemeni police and seven civilians were killed and an al Qa’eda-linked group called the Islamic Jihad of Yemen later claimed responsibility.

This followed an earlier mortar attack on the embassy in March, in which the militants missed their target and hit a nearby girl’s school.

Earlier this month al Qa’eda claimed responsibility for killing seven Yemeni security officials in an ambush near the Saudi Arabian border. The West and Saudi Arabia fear that al Qa’eda militants will take advantage of the government’s distraction with the insurrection in the north and secessionist movement in the south and strengthen its local support base.

Poverty

Yemen is the poorest country in the Middle East and one of the poorest in the world, with its economic fortunes tied to its declining oil revenues.

It has the lowest oil output of all oil producing states in the region. Oil provides 90 per cent of the country’s export revenue and 75 per cent of government revenue. The World Bank predicts that its output will rapidly plummet between 2009 and 2010, with its reserves completely consumed by 2017.

It has fourth highest population growth rate in the world, which puts further strain on its fragile economy, and a burgeoning young population, with 46 per cent of inhabitants under 14.

Despite the fact that its population is largely agricultural, the country is heavily dependant on food imports, leaving the people highly vulnerable to global price fluctuations.

According to the UN, the number of people in the country who are undernourished is on the increase.

Yemenis have also been hurt by Gulf labour policies, as nations tighten security and turn to Asia for cheaper labour.

As a consequence of this poverty and malnutrition, the life expectancy of Yemenis is 63.3 years, lower than world average of 66.6.

Water

The hot arid climate puts formidable pressure on the country’s water reserves and Sana’a is forecast to be the first capital city in the world to run out of groundwater.

Water tables are dropping dramatically, with 90 per cent of water being used in the agricultural sector, upon which a large proportion of the population are dependent.

“In the absence of significant measures to reduce urban population growth and eliminate the hidden subsidies that encourage unlimited private exploitation of the country’s water, Yemen’s future looks extremely bleak,” the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Christopher Boucek and Princeton University’s Gregory Johnson wrote in an article in Foreign Policy this year.

The 2009 Arab Human development report classed Yemen as under “severe” water stress, and although other Gulf countries such as Bahrain and Qatar received the same rating, they are rich enough to launch large-scale water desalination projects; an option which less available to Yemen due to its geographic location and poverty.



lmorris@thenational.ae