Republican hopes rise as Obama is hit by losses

Steven Stanek and Sharmila Devi, Foreign Correspondents

• Last Updated: November 04. 2009 9:58PM UAE / November 4. 2009 5:58PM GMT

Republican Governor-elect Chris Christie greets supporters on election night in Parsippany. Christopher Barth / AP

WASHINGTON // Almost exactly one year since the Democratic Party, led by Barack Obama, swept into power, US voters returned to the polls and gave a much-needed boost to Republicans, fuelling hope among conservatives that they can retake control of the federal government faster than anyone expected.

In a handful of off-year elections, the Republican Party, which seemed in disarray only months ago, claimed the biggest prizes: the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey over candidates for whom Mr Obama vigorously campaigned.

Democrats, meanwhile, narrowly won a special election for a US House seat in upstate New York, defeating a conservative candidate with powerful backers in a race that carried national implications for both parties.

While the gubernatorial losses are disappointing for Democrats, political analysts caution that the results of scattered off-year races are not a reliable predictor of what will happen in the 2010 midterm elections, when a vast majority of governors, one-third of the Senate, and all 435 seats in the House will be up for re-election. Such races, as many Democrats have since pointed out, often revolve around local issues, not national ones.

“I think data from the gubernatorial races demonstrated voters went to the polls in those two contests to talk about and work through great local issues that did not involve the president,” Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary, told reporters yesterday, adding that Mr Obama did not watch the vote tallies come in.

Still, the results are a blow to Mr Obama and raise questions about his influence over his party’s base and his selling power for fellow Democrats who will seek to align themselves with the president and employ his oratorical skills on the campaign trail.

Republicans, for their part, moved almost immediately to portray the victories in Virginia and New Jersey – both states won by Mr Obama in 2008 – as a referendum on the Obama presidency, calling them a rejection of his “big government” policies, such as corporate bailouts and increased spending.

“This vote is a sound rejection of the far-left policies that are hurting our nation,” Michael Steele, chairman of the Republican National Committee, said in a statement. “Democrats should have reason to fear the upcoming elections in 2010.”

In both gubernatorial races, independents, who propelled Mr Obama to victory in 2008, broke heavily for Republicans, exit polls showed. A majority of voters who said they worried about the economy – a group that also favoured Mr Obama last year – likewise turned to Republicans.

“That’s got to be cause for concern,” said Tad Devine, a long-time Democratic political operative.

In Virginia, which emerged in 2008 as a surprising swing state – Mr Obama was the first Democratic candidate to win there since 1964 – Bob McDonnell, a conservative Republican, soundly defeated R Creigh Deeds, a moderate Democrat who Mr Obama emphatically endorsed at a rally last week. Mr McDonnell will be the first Republican to run the state in eight years.

The loss in New Jersey, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, was perhaps more worrying for the Democratic Party. Republican Chris Christie, the state’s former US attorney, unseated Jon Corzine, a former Goldman Sachs chairman who moved from the US Senate when he was elected governor in 2005.

Analysts attribute the Democratic losses to a variety of factors: badly organised campaigns, weak candidates and the dominance of local issues, to name a few. But perhaps the most decisive factor was that young voters and black voters, who turned out in droves for Mr Obama, simply did not show up to punch a ballot that did not bear his name.

Mr Obama “has proven that he cannot transfer popularity, even among the people he registered, to a Democratic candidate”, Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, said. “That is worrying a lot of Democrats on the ballot in 2010.”

The lone bright spot for Democrats came in a far-flung district of upstate New York, where a special election was held to fill a seat vacated by Republican John McHugh. Bill Owens won the seat for the Democrats after the Republicans deemed their own candidate too liberal.

sstanek@thenational.ae

sdevi@thenational.ae