Afghans tepid to presidential runoff vote

Julius Cavendish

• Last Updated: October 23. 2009 7:10PM UAE / October 23. 2009 3:10PM GMT

KABUL // Instead of the usual brisk trade in carpets, silks and gemstones, the popular strip of shops along Chicken Street in Kabul is now largely deserted. Sales are down by half: shopkeepers blame Afghanistan’s political uncertainty.

In the gloom of his stockroom, a mild-mannered carpet dealer laughs bitterly at the notion that he is expected to vote again for a new president. “There will be more instability, the same problems all over again,” said Ghulam Sakhi, surrounded by carpets he is unable to sell.

On Tuesday, Hamid Karzai finally caved in to enormous international pressure to accept findings of the Electoral Complaints Commission of vote rigging in the August 20 ballot. He reluctantly agreed to a runoff against his challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, scheduled for November 7, after a quiet walk in the presidential palace gardens with the US senator, John Kerry.

According to the Associated Press, Mr Kerry told Mr Karzai of his own decision to concede to George W Bush after the 2004 US election – even though he had doubts about ballot-counting in Ohio. There are times, he said, when you have to put country before self. A glum-looking Mr Karzai duly relented, despite suspicions that foreign interference, not dodgy ballots, were stripping him of victory.

Across the country there is a deep disenchantment with the thought of a new election. “If there is a second round we will not participate,” Sadruddin Khan, a tribal elder in Kandahar, said. “It is not worth it to us to once again face the possibility of having our fingers and heads chopped off, and our police and soldiers die. Neither Karzai nor Abdullah are worth the lives of our children.”

This is the rub. Although Nato is now putting a contingency plan drawn up weeks ago into practice, Afghan forces are mobilising and the UN has launched a vast logistics operation distributing millions of fresh ballot papers, boxes and indelible ink across the country, there is no saying that two of the largest problems with the first round – low turnout and widespread fraud – will not blight a repeat.

Turnout estimates were as low as five per cent in some areas hit particularly hard by the insurgency last time. In Kandahar city, the Taliban hanged two people who had braved the rockets and gunfire to get to polling centres. Although both candidates claim more voters will turn out on November 7, the reality is that there is little appetite for more voting, even if the insurgents have less time to organise a campaign of intimidation.

There is also the feeling that there is nothing to prevent fraud second time around.

Indeed, election experts in Kabul have warned that little is being done to mitigate cheating. Of particular concern is the Independent Election Commission (IEC). Tasked with running the elections, the IEC is stuffed with Mr Karzai’s appointees.

“The worrying thing in this election is, OK, we knew fraud had been committed. You had all these fraud mitigation policies drafted by the IEC – and they didn’t follow them,” one western election official said. “What … are they going to do to mitigate that fraud? I really don’t know. I don’t have a clue.”

Even though the IEC, which will retain complete control over the runoff, has now accepted that Mr Karzai won less than half the vote it rejects the idea that systematic fraud was to blame. Its chairman, Azizullah Ludin, pointed the finger at poor security.

The UN has told the IEC that 200 of the 380 district election chiefs who helped run things first time round ignored procedures or were actually complicit in the cheating and must not be hired again. But a shake-up of the leadership a fortnight before voting has the potential to be a political and managerial nightmare, so senior architects of the first round fraud will remain in place.

“They said they would be looking into staffing problems but of course they’re not going to be able to do that in the next two weeks,” the western election official said.

The number of polling stations – the individual booths at each polling centre – will be reduced from around 23,000 to 16,000. The aim is to shut down those where comprehensive ballot stuffing took place. A UN spokesman said this would not impede voting. “If a polling station returned mainly illegitimate papers, we’re not disenfranchising voters, we’re disenfranchising people who tried to cheat,” said Aleem Siddique.

Dr Abdullah has said that he will only take part in the runoff if certain conditions are met. He has not yet said what those are, and given the proximity of the runoff, this sounds more like an escape clause than a serious anti-corruption programme.

Rumours persist that the two candidates will cut a deal but the probability of this happening is diminishing. Diplomats say what dialogue there is between the two camps – there are whispers of a meeting between Mr Karzai and Mr Abdullah within the next day or two – has the tenor of preparation for post-election discussion, not an 11th- hour compromise.

“I think the likelihood is of a second round,” the EU ambassador to Kabul, Hansjoerg Kretschmer, said. “I don’t think there will be anything before then to stop it.”

* The National